{"msg": "603\nAXNT20 KNHC 210846\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0830 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W, south of\n18N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant \nconvection is noted with this wave. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of \n21N, drifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate convection is\nactive on the northern end of the tropical wave from 18N to 21N\nbetween 43W and 45W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W to\n09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 04N50W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N and east of 20W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating \nlight to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper\nlow centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of\nshowers and thunderstorms south of Apalachicola, Florida, and \nover the Florida Straits.\nFor the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern U.S.\nwill maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the\nbasin through midweek. A vigorous upper-level low and associated \nsurface trough over the southern Gulf will contribute to \nscattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through  \nmidweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A cold \nfront may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri, \nleading to a modest increase in winds across the basin. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate\nto fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to\ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.\nAn upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest\nCaribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper\ntrough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms between \nNicaragua and Jamaica, and off western Cuba.\nFor the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high\npressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will\nmaintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central\nCaribbean through the week. A vigorous upper-level low over the \neastern Gulf of America will continue to promote scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and northwestern \nCaribbean through midweek. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.8N\n32.1W at 21/0900 UTC or 350 nm SW of the Azores, moving SSE at 2 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt\nwith gusts to 65 kt.\nAn upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest\nCaribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper\ntrough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from\nthe Florida Straits, southeast Florida, and across the central \nand southern Bahamas. A weak pressure gradient prevails across \nthe discussion waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the \nwaters west of 45W, except reaching moderate speeds near the \ncentral and southern Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over\nthese waters. E of 45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate \nseas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western\nAtlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across\nforecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low\nover the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical\nmoisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and\nthunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low\npressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of\nthe U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move\ninto the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front\nwill be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for\nlarge N-NE swell. \nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay will move to 33.2N 32.3W this \nafternoon, 32.3N 33.2W Tue morning, and 31.2N 34.9W Tue \nafternoon. Fay will weaken to a remnant low near 30.4N 36.7W Wed \nmorning, then 29.8N 38.4W Wed afternoon, and 29.6N 40.1W Thu \nmorning. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves to 29.5N \n43.0W by early Fri.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212121111915266055", "issued": "2026-09-21T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212121111915266055"}