{"id": "1212119687295107079", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-21T09:00:00Z", "msg": "297\nWTPZ41 KNHC 210839\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026\n \nOdalys continues to be an asymmetric tropical cyclone this morning,\nwith deep convection primarily confined to the southern and eastern\nsemicircles. The low-level center was exposed for much of the\nevening. However, over the past couple of hours, a new burst of deep\nconvection has developed near the center. A Metop-B scatterometer\npass at 0455 UTC revealed peak winds of only 32 kt. Meanwhile, the\nlatest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range\nfrom 39 to 45 kt. Blending the scatterometer data with the higher\nsatellite estimates and the subsequent convective burst near the\ncenter, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt,\nand this general motion should continue through tonight. A mid- to\nupper-level trough is expected to move into the eastern Pacific\ntoward the southwest U.S. coast and the Baja California peninsula.\nThis will cause a sharp eastward turn, steering the system\neast-northeastward to northeastward through the middle of the week\nbetween the flow of the trough and a mid-level ridge situated\nbetween Odalys and Tropical Storm Polo. The latest NHC track\nforecast has been shifted to the right of the previous forecast,\nand lies near the HCCA and GDMI track aids.\n\nOdalys will continue to deal with vertical wind shear over the next \nday or so. Afterward, the guidance suggests the shear should relax \nslightly while the cyclone remains over warm sea surface \ntemperatures and within a moist environment. This should allow for \nsome gradual strengthening during the next few days. By the middle \nto latter portion of the forecast period, the latest SHIPS guidance \nshows the system moving into a drier mid-level environment, with \nvertical wind shear expected to increase again. In response to \nthese less favorable conditions, several intensity models no longer \nshow Odalys reaching hurricane strength. Although Odalys is still \nforecast to become a hurricane, the updated NHC intensity forecast \nlies near the higher end of the guidance envelope, closely following \nthe HCCA consensus aid, and is slightly lower than the previous \nforecast.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/0900Z 13.5N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 14.4N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 15.2N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 15.4N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 15.5N 129.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  23/1800Z 15.6N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 15.9N 126.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  25/0600Z 17.2N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  26/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}