{"msg": "978\nAXNT20 KNHC 210419\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W, south of\n16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant \nconvection is noted with this wave. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of \n20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted\nwith this wave. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to\n10N20W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N\nto 15N and east of 20W, and from 08N to 10N between 47W and 52W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating \nlight to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper\nlow centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of\nshowers and thunderstorms off Panama City, Florida, off Tampa Bay,\nFlorida, and over the Florida Straits.\nFor the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern \nU.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the \nbasin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated \nsurface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to \nscattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through \nthe midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A \ncold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri, \nleading to a modest increase in winds across the basin.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate\nto fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to\ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.\nAn upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest\nCaribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper\ntrough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off,  \nNicaragua, southwest of Jamaica, and off eastern Cuba and the \nWindward Passage.\nFor the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high\npressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will\nmaintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central\nCaribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-\nlevel low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to\nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and\nnorthwestern Caribbean through midweek. \n \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast\nof the discussion area near 34.1N 31.9W at 21/0300 UTC or 335 nm \nsouthwest of the Azores, moving ESE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt \nwith gusts to 75 kt.\nAn upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest\nCaribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper\ntrough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from\nthe Florida Straits, off northern Cuba, across the central and\nsouthern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. A\nweak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters. \nLight to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W, \nexcept reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern \nBahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of \n45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western\nAtlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across\nforecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low\nover the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical\nmoisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and\nthunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low\npressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of\nthe U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move\ninto the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front\nwill be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for\nlarge N-NE swell. \nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is near 34.1N 31.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is\nmoving east-southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt\nwith gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb.\nFay will move to 33.7N 31.8W Mon morning, 32.7N 32.5W Mon evening,\n31.6N 33.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 35.7W Tue evening, then weaken to \na remnant low near 30.1N 37.6W Wed morning, and move to 29.6N \n39.3W Wed evening. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves\nto 29.6N 42.2W late Thu. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212068540002238471", "issued": "2026-09-21T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212068540002238471"}