{"msg": "507\nAXPZ20 KNHC 210401\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 13.1N 127.7W at 21/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft. Numerous moderate \nto strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 125W and 131W. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found \nelsewhere from 01N to 16N between 120W and 140W. Gradual \nstrengthening is expected to resume on Monday, and Odalys is \nforecast to become a hurricane by mid-week. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nOdalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nFormer TD Seventeen-E is now Tropical Storm Polo, which is \ncentered near 15.1N 104.6W at 21/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast \nat 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas \nare near 14 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is from 12N to 17N between 100W and 108W. Rapid \nintensification is forecast over the next few days, and Polo is \nexpected to become a major hurricane by the middle part of the \nweek. Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals\nof 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches \nacross coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoac\u00e1n, \nColima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nSeventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, moving westward near \n5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends\nfrom 02N to 10N E of 100W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 16N98W. It resumes \nSW of Polo near 13N108W to 09N120W. Scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 112W\nand 120W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on Tropical \nStorm Polo.\nTropical Storm Polo is near 15.1N 104.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is\nmoving east-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt\nwith gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004\nmb. Aside from conditions associated with Tropical Storm Polo, \nmoderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California \npeninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the \nGulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas \nprevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, Polo will move to 15.4N 103.8W Mon morning, \n15.4N 103.1W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N \n102.4W Tue morning, 15.5N 102.4W Tue evening, 16.0N 103.0W Wed \nmorning, and 16.7N 103.7W Wed evening. Polo will change little in\nintensity as it moves near 18.2N 106.0W late Thu. Moderate to \nlocally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja \nCalifornia waters through early Fri morning when conditions in \nBaja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to \nthe proximity of TS Polo. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion.\nFor the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas \nwill prevail through Thu night across the offshores. Winds and\nseas will build across the region as a low pressure develops\nwithin the monsoon.  \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for details on Tropical Storm\nOdalys and Tropical Polo. \nOutside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough \nseas, are over the waters N of the monsoon trough to near 24N and\nwest of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, \nprevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon \ntrough, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, prevail. \nFor the forecast, Polo will move to 15.4N 103.8W Mon morning, \n15.4N 103.1W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N \n102.4W Tue morning, 15.5N 102.4W Tue evening, 16.0N 103.0W Wed \nmorning, and 16.7N 103.7W Wed evening. Polo will change little in\nintensity as it moves near 18.2N 106.0W late Thu. \nOdalys will move to 14.1N 128.9W Mon morning, 15.1N 130.0W\nMon evening, 15.5N 130.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 129.5W Tue evening,\nstrengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 128.6W Wed morning, and\n16.0N 127.5W Wed evening. Odalys will change little in intensity\nas it moves near 17.3N 125.4W late Thu. \nOtherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will \nprevail. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1212065105922686983", "issued": "2026-09-21T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1212065105922686983"}