{"id": "1212049480450834439", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-21T03:00:00Z", "msg": "567\nWTPZ41 KNHC 210242\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026\n \nThe northerly shear that has been impeding Odalys' intensification \nrate appears to have increased during the past several hours.  The \nsurface center has become exposed to the northwest of the deep \nconvective cloud mass, and the cloud tops have warmed somewhat as \nwell.  The UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates and the TAFB \nDvorak satellite intensity classification yield an intensity of 45 \nkt for this advisory.\n \nAlthough Odalys is moving over warm oceanic temperatures and within \na moist, unstable air mass, modest northerly vertical shear should \ncontinue to impinge on the northern side of the cyclone for the next \n24 hours. Consequently, little if any strengthening is expected in \nthe short-term. By Monday evening, the SHIPS statistical intensity \nmodel and the global models show the shear diminishing, allowing \nOdalys to strengthen through day 4 gradually. Afterward, increasing \ndeep-layer shear and less favorable thermodynamic atmospheric \nconditions are expected to inhibit further intensification and \ncommence a slow weakening trend. The official intensity forecast \nindicates a slower rate of strengthening compared to the previous \none, and is very close to the HCCA and GDMI aids, but above the IVCN \nconsensus guidance. \n \nOdalys' initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 \nkt, and this general motion should continue through Monday night.  \nOn Tuesday, a rather abrupt turn toward the east is forecast in \nresponse to a mid- to upper-level amplifying tropospheric trough \nmoving over the eastern Pacific toward the west coast of California \nand the Baja California peninsula.  By mid-week, the cyclone should \ngradually move east-northeastward and eventually northeastward \nwithin the weakness created by the trough and in the northwestern \nside of a mid-level ridge situated between Odalys and Tropical Storm \nPolo.  The NHC track forecast lies between the HFIP HCCA and the \nGDMI TC ensemble mean and is adjusted to the right of the previous \nforecast beyond day 3.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/0300Z 13.1N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 14.1N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 15.5N 130.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 15.6N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  23/1200Z 15.7N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z 17.3N 125.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  26/0000Z 18.9N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}