{"id": "1212049192089976839", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-21T03:00:00Z", "msg": "545\nWTNT41 KNHC 210240\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026\n \nFay is beginning to feel the effects of increasing northwesterly\nshear over its circulation, with satellite images showing its\noutflow pattern becoming restricted in that quadrant. However, an\nASCAT-C pass received after the prior advisory showed a peak wind\nretrieval of 53 kt, and that the center was a little further south\nand east of what was previously estimated. Assuming some wind\nundersampling of this instrument along with a slight increase in the\nDMINT and DPRINT intensity estimates, the initial intensity is being\nnudged up to 60 kt for this advisory, making Fay just shy of\nhurricane intensity.\n \nFay appears to have turned east-southeastward tonight, with an\nestimated motion of 130/4 kt. Over the next day or so, a building\nridge to the northwest should continue to turn Fay southward and\nthen southwestward with gradually increasing forward motion. The NHC\ntrack forecast this cycle was shifted a bit southward compared to\nthe previous one, but converges close to the previous forecast\ntrack in 60-72 h. This track forecast remains in good agreement with\nthe reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google\nDeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids.\n \nThe tropical storm is just about out of time to intensify further,\nthough it remains possible Fay could briefly become a hurricane\ntonight before the northwesterly vertical wind shear becomes\nprohibitively strong from an amplifying upper-level ridge to the\nnorthwest. This shear will ultimately import very dry mid-level air\ninto Fay's core, causing the cyclone to quickly decouple in the\nnext 24-36 h. The global and hurricane-regional model guidance\nremains in good agreement on Fay struggling to produce organized\nconvection by 48-60 h, and that continues to be when the NHC\nforecast indicates the cyclone becoming post-tropical. The NHC\nintensity forecast is largely an update of the prior one beyond the\nnext 12 h, in good agreement with the intensity aid consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/0300Z 34.1N  31.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 33.7N  31.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 32.7N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 31.6N  33.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 30.8N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  23/1200Z 30.1N  37.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  24/0000Z 29.6N  39.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  25/0000Z 29.6N  42.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}