{"msg": "028\nAXNT20 KNHC 202149\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2145 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W, south of\n16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant \nconvection is noted with this wave. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of \n20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted\nwith this wave. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 18N16W to\n05N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N \nand east of 20W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating \nlight to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging across the southeastern U.S. will \nmaintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin \nthrough mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated \nsurface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to \nscattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through \nthe midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. \nLooking ahead, a cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu \nnight through Fri, leading to a modest increase in winds across \nthe basin.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate\nto fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to\ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W.\nFor the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high\npressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will \nmaintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central \nCaribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper-\nlevel low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and northwestern \nCaribbean through Wed. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 34.4N\n32.7W at 20/2100 UTC or 350 nm SW of the Azores, moving NNE at 5 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.\nA weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters.\nLight to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W,\nexcept reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern\nBahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of\n45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient \nacross the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to \nmoderate winds across forecast waters through early Thu. A \nvigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida, and\nabundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force \nscattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W \nthrough Wed. Low pressure will deepen offshore of the middle \nAtlantic coast of the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold \nfront to move into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through \nFri. The front will be accompanied by increasing winds and the \npotential for large N-NE swell.\nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay will strengthen to a hurricane near\n34.3N 32.3W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 33.6N \n32.5W Mon afternoon, move to 32.5N 33.5W Tue morning, 31.4N 35.1W \nTue afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 30.5N 36.8W Wed \nmorning, and 29.8N 38.7W Wed afternoon. Fay will change little in \nintensity as it moves to near 29.0N 42.0W Thu afternoon.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211991897803489287", "issued": "2026-09-20T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211991897803489287"}