{"id": "1211981834058235911", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-20T21:00:00Z", "msg": "478\nWTPZ42 KNHC 202058\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026\n\nThe tropical disturbance to the south of Mexico, formerly Invest \n99E, has become better organized with some convective banding \nfeatures over its eastern semicircle.  Although a recent \nscatterometer pass missed the circulation, low cloud motions \nindicate that the system now has enough of a low-level circulation \nto qualify as a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 \nkt this advisory. \n\nThe center has been difficult to track so far so the initial motion \nis a rather uncertain 030/7 kt.  According to the majority of the \ntrack guidance, the system is likely to turn eastward within the \nnext 12 to 24 hours.  This motion is apparently due to the system \nbeing embedded within a broader cyclonic gyre near the southern \ncoast of Mexico.  Later in the forecast period, the system is \nexpected to turn toward the northwest and move on the southern side \nof a mid-level high.  The official forecast is near the northern \nside of the track guidance model envelope.\n\nThe depression should be situated within an environment that is \nconducive for strengthening during the next few days, with very \nlight vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.  \nThe official intensity forecast is near the model consensus and \nshows the system becoming a hurricane in 36 h.  It should be noted \nthat the Google DeepMind and HCCA guidance call for even faster \nstrengthening than shown in this initial forecast.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 17-E will \nimpact coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall \nmay produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in \nareas of steep terrain.\n\n2. Tropical Depression 17-E is forecast to strengthen and move \ncloser to the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later \nthis week. Although it is too soon to determine the exact location \nor magnitude of impacts associated with the system, interest in \nMexico should closely monitor its progress and updates to the \nforecast.\n\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/2100Z 14.9N 104.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n \n"}