{"id": "1211979874218016775", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-20T21:00:00Z", "msg": "185\nWTPZ41 KNHC 202048\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026\n \nOdalys continues to gradually become better organized, with very \ndeep convection near and over the center, and some banding features \nevident over the southern semicircle.  Upper-level outflow remains \nsomewhat restricted over the northern quadrant of the circulation, \nhowever.  This implies some northerly vertical wind shear over the \nstorm.  The estimated current intensity is increased to 45 kt based \non objective and subjective Dvorak estimates and observations from \na scatterometer overpass.\n\nThe tropical cyclone is expected to be in an environment of \nlow to moderate shear, over very warm waters, and within a moist \nlow- to mid-level air mass for the next couple of days.  Therefore \ncontinued strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days.  \nLater in the forecast period, somewhat drier air and the possible \ninhibiting influence of a developing tropical cyclone to the east \ncould limit strengthening.  The official intensity forecast is \nclose to the model consensus.\n\nOdalys should move generally northwestward through tonight, on the \nsouthwest side of a mid-level ridge.  In 24-48 hours, a 500 mb \ntrough moving into California and Baja California should cause the \nsystem to turn eastward.  Later in the forecast period, as the \ntrough lifts out, Odalys is likely to move northeastward on the \nnorthwestern side of a mid-level ridge.  The developing tropical \ncyclone to the east could also have some influence on the track in \n3-5 days, although there is considerable uncertainty about this. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 12.8N 127.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 14.8N 129.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 15.0N 129.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  23/0600Z 15.0N 128.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 15.1N 127.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 15.9N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  25/1800Z 17.5N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}