{"id": "1211977318231375879", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-20T21:00:00Z", "msg": "803\nWTNT41 KNHC 202035\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026\n \nA few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in \nthe last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. \nInfrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops \nhave cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of \nconvection.  The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS \nare in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix \nwas a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has \nbeen raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. \n\nThe environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for \nadditional convective development and an approaching mid- to \nupper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for \nabout 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear \nshould increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. \nThis will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC \nintensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant \nlow by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The \nintensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance \nin the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations \ndue to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still \npossible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. \n\nFay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with \nthe initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is \nexpected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to \nmid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This \nridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually \naccelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC \nforecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few \nminor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and \nGDMI track aids. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/2100Z 34.4N  32.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 34.3N  32.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 33.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 32.5N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 31.4N  35.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  23/0600Z 30.5N  36.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/1800Z 29.8N  38.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  24/1800Z 29.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}