{"msg": "357\nAXNT20 KNHC 201635\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1621 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of\n20N, drifting slowly westward. A weak 1015 mb low is also\nalong this wave axis. However, no significant convection is \ndepicted at this time in association with this wave. \nThe western Caribbean tropical wave is transitioning into the\nEastern Pacific, and it is discussed in the Eastern Pacific \nTropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 18N16W to\n08N39W. Aside from convection noted in the Atlantic section \nbelow, scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N and\neast of 21.5W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a weak\ntrough over the W-central Gulf. An E to W surface trough extends \nfrom the Straits of Florida to near 24N87W. A few showers and \nthunderstorms are active along the trough. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are also active over the northeast Gulf, related to \ndivergence aloft near an upper low centered over Florida. Light to\ngentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain \ngenerally gentle to moderate winds across the basin through mid \nweek. A vigorous upper-level low and associated surface low or \ntrough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers \nand thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through the midweek, with \nthe Straits of Florida the most active area.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with\nsurface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-\nBermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas are found\nacross the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds\nand 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. An upper level low north of the area is\nsupporting scattered moderate convection over the NW part of the\nbasin. Numerous moderate convection is depicted south of 14.5N and\nwest of 80W in association with the eastern end of the Eastern\nPacific monsoon trough. \nFor the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high \npressure near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate\nto fresh to trades over the south-central Caribbean for the next \nseveral days. A vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America \nwill promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over \nthe west and northwestern Caribbean through midweek.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 34.1N\n33.0W at 20/1500 UTC or 370 nm SW of the Azores, moving NE at 3 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.\nDivergence aloft associated with an upper low over Florida is \nsupporting scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. Farther\neast, another upper trough reaches from an upper low near 31N41W \nto 26N46W. This upper trough is supporting scattered showers and \nthunderstorms from 20N to 31N between 50W and 60W, focused along \na surface trough reaching from 30N60W to 23N50W. In addition, the \nupper pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms \nfrom 20N to 28N between 35W to 43W along a trough from 32N40W to \n26N42W. Farther south, scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms are active within 75 to 150 nm in the northeast \nquadrant of a 1014 mb surface low centered near 15N52W. Broad \nridging covers the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds and \n3-6 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic discussion area.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient \nacross the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to \nmoderate winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A\nvigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida, \nand abundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force \nscattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W \nthrough midweek. \nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to eventually approach \nand move into the discussion waters to near 30N 36W Tue night, \nbut by then as a remnant low.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211930074809499655", "issued": "2026-09-20T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211930074809499655"}