{"msg": "658\nAXPZ20 KNHC 201513\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Odalys is centered near 11.1N 125.5W at 20/1500\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft. Numerous moderate \nto strong convection is from 08N to 12N between 123W and 127W. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found \nelsewhere from 03N to 13N between 120W and 130W. Odalys is \nforecast to turn northwestward for the next couple of days, then\nmove in a northeastward to eastward track. Environmental\nconditions are conducive for intensification, and Odalys is\nforecast to reach hurricane strength by Mon night.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nOdalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nStorm warning (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with \na broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south of \nManzanillo, Mexico have continued to become better organized over\nthe past several hours. Environmental conditions remain \nconducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to\nform within the next day or so as the system moves generally \nnorthward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a high \nchance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. \nRegardless of development, this system is forecast to bring gale \nto storm force winds and rough to very rough seas over the \noffshore waters from Guerrero to Jalisco through Thu night. In \nanticipation of tropical cyclone development, a storm warning has\nbeen issued for this area.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these Invests.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 84/85W, moving westward near\n5-10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon \ntrough section below. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 15N106W to\n11N122W. It resumes west of Odalys near 11N130W to 14N140W.\nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from\n02N to 12N east of 90W, from 05N to 12N between 92W and 100W,\nfrom 11N to 18N between 101W and 109W, from 05N to 10N between\n109W and 116W, and from 02N to 16N between 130W and 140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a storm warning \nassociated with EP99, which has a high chance for TC development \nin the next 48 hours.\nFresh to strong winds and rough seas, associated with EP99, are \nover the outer offshore waters off SW Mexico. Moderate winds and\nmoderate seas are west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle\nto moderate winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of\nCalifornia. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail\nelsewhere. \nFor the forecast, aside from conditions associated with Invest \nEP99, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across\nthe offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning \nwhen conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to \ndeteriorate due to the proximity of Invest EP99. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the \nregion.\nFor the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas \nwill prevail through Thu night across the offshores. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for details on Tropical Storm\nOdalys. \nOutside of Odalys, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are \nover the waters N of the monsoon trough to near 23N and west of \n132W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail \nelsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong winds are \nover the waters S of EP99, where rough seas prevail. Elsewhere S\nof the monsoon trough, moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas, prevail. \nFor the forecast, Odalys will move to 12.1N 126.8W this evening,\n13.3N 128.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.1N \n129.0W Mon evening, 14.5N 129.2W Tue morning, 14.8N 128.4W Tue \nevening, and 14.9N 127.7W Wed morning. Odalys will change little \nin intensity as it moves to the 15.5N 126.2W early Thu. \nOtherwise, outside of conditions with EP99, gentle to moderate \nwinds and moderate seas will prevail. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211914115833331719", "issued": "2026-09-20T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211914115833331719"}