{"id": "1211910747169751047", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-20T15:00:00Z", "msg": "046\nWTPZ41 KNHC 201456\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026\n\nDeep convection has been increasing in association with Odalys \nthis morning, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C near the \nestimate center location.  Some banding features are beginning to \ndevelop over the southern semicircle of the system.  Upper-level \noutflow is limited to the north of the storm, however.  The current \nintensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of \nsubjective and objective Dvorak estimates.\n\nThe center is not easy to locate, but my best estimate of initial \nmotion is west-northwestward, or around 285/8 kt.  Odalys should \nturn northwestward as it moves on the southwestern side of a \nnarrow and weakening mid-level ridge to its northeast.  After \nabout 48 hours, the system should slow and turn northeastward  \nand eastward in response to the ridge weakening  and a \nmid-tropospheric trough moving over southern California and Baja \nCalifornia.  Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should \nmove generally northeastward along the northwest side of a \nmid-level ridge.  However there is significant uncertainty in \nthe 3-5 day track of Odalys due its potential interaction with a \ndeveloping tropical cyclone to its east.  The official track \nforecast is fairly close to the lastest corrected model consensus, \nHCCA, prediction.\n\nOdalys should be in an environment conducive for strengthening \nduring the next few days, with very warm waters, low to moderate \nvertical wind shear, and high low- to mid-level humidity.  \nTherefore gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple \nof days,  and the official forecast is close to the latest \nDecay-SHIPS model guidance.  Later in the forecast period, the \nsystem may encounter a little drier air and its intensity become \nhindered by its interaction with the developing tropical cyclone \ncloser to the coast of Mexico. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/1500Z 11.1N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}