{"msg": "566\nAXNT20 KNHC 200914\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0900 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 06N \nto 21N, drifting slowly westward. Nearby convection is described\nbelow in the Atlantic section.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W to the S \nof 20N along the coast of Nicaragua to NE Costa Rica, moving \nwestward 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 13N to 20N between 78W and 83W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N16W to\n07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 07N45W, then resumes W of\na tropical wave from 13N53W to 11N61W. Aside from convection \nnoted in the Atlantic section below, scattered moderate convection\nis noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 17W and\n35W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a 1011 mb\nlow pressure area in the W-central Gulf near 23N94W. An E to W\nsurface trough extends from the Straits of Florida to the low. A\nfew showers and thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm south\nof the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active\nover the northeast Gulf, related to divergence aloft near an upper\nlow centered over Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft\nseas prevail across the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain generally\ngentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through mid week. An \nupper- low and associated surface low/trough over the central Gulf\nwill contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms over \nmostly the eastern Gulf through the early part of the week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with\nsurface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-\nBermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are found\nacross the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds\nand 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Some convection is occurring near a \ntropical wave near 84W as described above, and along the south\ncoast of Cuba.\nFor the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure\nnorth of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate to fresh\nto trades over the south-central Caribbean for the next several \ndays. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean \nthrough the early part of the week.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nFor awareness purposes, newly named Tropical Storm Fay is \ncentered northeast of the discussion waters is well southwest of\nthe Azores near 33.7N 33.1W at 5 AM EDT, moving NE at 4 kt. \nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained \nwind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. \nDivergence aloft associated with an upper low over west-central Florida\nis supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the\nBahamas and off northeast Florida, focused in part on a pair of\nsurface troughs over those respective areas. Farther east, another\nupper trough reaches from an upper low near 28N48W to 25N55W to\n29N65W. This upper trough is supporting scattered showers and\nthunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 50W and 60W, focused along \na surface trough reaching from 30N60W to 23N50W. In addition, the\nupper pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms\nfrom 20N to 28N between 40W to 45W along a trough from 30N40W to\n23N46W. Farther south, scattered to numerous showers and\nthunderstorms are active within 75 to 150 nm in the northeast \nquadrant of a 1012 mb surface low centered near 14N53W. Broad\nridging covers the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds and\n3-5 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic discussion area.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \npromote only gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for \nthe next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant \ntropical moisture will force scattered showers and thunderstorms \nfor the waters west of 70W through the early part of the week. \nMeanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to eventually approach \nand move into the discussion waters to near 30N 36W Tue night, \nbut by then as a remnant low.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211843444318011399", "issued": "2026-09-20T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211843444318011399"}