{"msg": "814\nAXPZ20 KNHC 200406\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nStorm warning (EP99): Persistent but still disorganized shower \nand thunderstorm activity is associated with a broad area of low \npressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the \nsouthwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are \nconducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected \nto form in the next day or so as the system moves generally \nnorthward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a high \nchance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. \nRegardless of development, this system is forecast to bring \ngale to storm force winds and rough to very rough seas over the \noffshore waters from Guerrero to Jalisco tonight through Thu \nnight. In anticipation of tropical cyclone development, a storm \nwarning has been issued for this area.\nWestern East Pacific (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with an area of low pressure located well southwest of\nthe Baja California Peninsula are becoming better organized. \nEnvironmental conditions are conducive for development, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form over the next day or so \nas it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across\nthe western East Pacific. There is a high chance of tropical \ncyclone formation in the next 48 hours.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these Invests.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean Sea with \naxis near 83W extends southward across W Panama and its offshore\nwaters. It is moving westward near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is from 01N to 10N E of 90W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N106W to 11N123W to \n13N137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted N of 03N and east of 107W, and from 05N to 12N between 120W\nand 128W. Numerous moderate to strong convection associated with\nInvest EP99 extends from 07N to 17N between 100W and 108W. Numerous\nmoderate to strong convection associated with Invest EP98 \nextends from 08N to 13N between 120W and 128W with scattered \nmoderate convection elsewhere from 02N to 13N between 117W and\n136W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a storm warning \nassociated with EP99, which has a high chance for TC development \nin the next 48 hours.\nModerate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas prevail across the\nBaja California offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro. Otherwise, except\nfor the Guerrero and Michoacan outer offshores where winds and\nseas are starting to deteriorate due to Invest EP99, moderate or\nweaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. Slight seas\nprevail along the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, aside from conditions associated with Invest \nEP99, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the \noffshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when\nconditions in Baja Calaifornia Sur offshores will start to\ndeteriorate due to the proximity of Invest EP99.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo extending \ndownstream to near 87W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail \nelsewhere. Moderate seas prevail over the offshore waters in \nlong- period southwest swell.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in \nthe Papagayo region through early Sun before diminishing. Gentle \nto moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more in EP98, with a high \nchance for TC development in the next 48 hours.\nThe remnant low of former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has\nshifted west of the area. A second area of low pressure, EP98, \nis centered near 11N123W. Both of these features are embedded \nwithin the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between these \nfeatures and a 1025 mb high centered N of the area near 33N137W \nis supporting moderate to fresh, locally strong, winds N of the \nmonsoon trough to near 23N and W of 120W. Moderate to rough seas \ncover these waters. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas \nare N of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds are \nfeeding into EP99, where rough seas prevail. Elsewhere S of the \nmonsoon trough, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, outside of conditions with EP98 and EP99, \ngentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211782882461974535", "issued": "2026-09-20T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211782882461974535"}