{"msg": "897\nAXNT20 KNHC 200244\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0040 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 06N \nto 21N, drifting slowly westward. Nearby convection is described\nbelow in the Atlantic section.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 82.5W to the S \nof 20N to near the border of Costa Rica and Panama, moving slowly\nwestward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 13N to 20N between 80W and 83W, with\nsimilar convection over western Panama and Costa Rica.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to\n07N29W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from 10N38W to 12N44W, then\nresumes W of a tropical wave from 11N46W to near Trinidad and\nTobago at 11N61W. Aside from convection noted in the Atlantic\nsection below, scattered moderate convection is noted within\n90-180 nm either side of the monsoon trough to the E of 34W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a 1011 mb\nlow pressure area in the W-central Gulf near 24N93W. An E to W\nsurface trough extends from the Straits of Florida to the low,\nwith another trough from 27N95W to the low to 21N95W. Isolated\nshowers and thunderstorms are near the troughs. Gentle to \nmoderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail N of 24N. \nLight to gentle winds and slight seas are found S of 25N.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain \ngenerally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next \nseveral days. An upper-low and associated surface low/trough over \nthe central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and \nthunderstorms over mostly the eastern Gulf through the early part \nof the week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with\nsurface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores-\nBermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are found\nfrom 11N to 18N between 67W and 79W, with gentle to moderate winds\nand 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Some convection is occurring near a\ntropical wave near 82W as described above, with additional\nmoisture from the NW Caribbean northeastward due to a mid to upper\nlevel jet.\nFresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas prevail over the \nsouth central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas\nare elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to\nmoderate seas are found W of 80W. \nFor the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high \npressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain \nfresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for \nthe next several days. A vigorous upper-level low will promote \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W \nCaribbean for at least the next two days. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nThe Atlantic waters N of 21N are dominated by several troughs. \nThe first one is from the central Bahamas northeastward to \n29N72W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is in the \nvicinity of this trough mainly from 21N to 26N between 69W and 78W.\nFarther east, another trough extends from 31N60W to 24N50W.  \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the \nvicinity of this trough mainly from 20N to 25N between 50W and 44W.\nA third trough is from 31N42W and 23N48W. A tropical wave is near\nthis trough to the south along 45W. These two features support\nscattered moderate to strong convection from 17N to 30N between\n38W and 45W. Meanwhile, a weak surface low is near 15N52W along a\ntrough from 12N to 17N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is\npresent within 90 nm in the E quadrant of the low. A weak pressure\ngradient dominates the Atlantic, with light to gentle winds N of \n10N and W of 45W, except moderate to fresh near northern\nHispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are\n4-6 ft S of 20N and E of 50W, and also N of 20N and E of 35W. Seas\nof 3-4 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters. \n\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \npromote only gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for \nthe next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant \ntropical moisture will force scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms for the waters west of 65W for at least the next two\ndays. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211766733143900167", "issued": "2026-09-20T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211766733143900167"}