{"id": "1211765428971732999", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-20T03:00:00Z", "msg": "682\nWTNT41 KNHC 200237\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Six Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026\n\nThe convective organization of the depression has increased \nsomewhat since the last advisory, with multiple convective bands in \nthe northern semicircle. This increase is reflected in the various \nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now \nsuggesting the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength. \nHowever, an ASCAT-C overpass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. Based \nmainly on that the initial intensity will remain 30 kt.  Cirrus \ncloud motion indicate that an upper-level cyclonic shear axis is \nlocated near or just south of the center, with very strong \nupper-level westerly flow over the southern part of the low-level \ncirculation.\n\nThe initial motion is 020/4 kt.  The depression is in an area of \nweak steering currents between a low- to mid-level ridge to the \neast and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest. During \nthe next couple of days, the southern portion of this trough is \nexpected to weaken, with a low- to mid-level ridge developing to \nthe west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. This should result \nin the cyclone stopping its north-northeastward motion and turning \ntoward the southwest. A general southwestward motion is then likely \nuntil the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted a bit \nwestward after 36 h, and the new forecast track is also nudged a \nbit west of the previous track.\n\nThe dynamical models are forecasting a small upper-level low to \ndevelop along the cyclonic shear axis near or south of the tropical \ndepression during the next 12 h or so. This is likely create a less \nhostile shear environment around the depression that should allow \nsome intensification. After 24 h, the models are in good agreement \nthat strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds will move \nover the cyclone, creating strong shear and causing weakening. \nWhile the models forecast the shear to diminish after 48-60 h, the \ncyclone or its remnants will be in an area of dry air and \nsubsidence that cause cause the convection to dissipate.  The new \nintensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm \nfor a day or so, followed by weakening to a remnant low between \n60-72 h. Based on the dynamical models, the remnant low is forecast \nto weaken to a trough between 96-120 h.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/0300Z 33.3N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 33.8N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 34.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 33.6N  32.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 32.7N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  22/1200Z 31.6N  33.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  23/0000Z 30.4N  35.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  24/0000Z 29.0N  39.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}