{"msg": "059\nAXPZ20 KNHC 192058\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2045 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGale warning (EP99): Persistent but disorganized shower and \nthunderstorm activity is associated with a broad area of low \npressure well south-southwest of the southwestern coast of \nMexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, \nand a tropical depression is expected to form over the next \ncouple of days as the system moves generally northward off the \ncoast of southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical \ncyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Regardless of \ndevelopment, this system is forecast to bring increasing winds \nand seas over the offshore waters from Guerrero to Jalisco \ntonight through Thu night. In anticipation of tropical cyclone \ndevelopment, a gale warning has been issued for these areas.\nWestern East Pacific (EP98): A broad area of low pressure \nlocated well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California\nPeninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form over \nthe next several days as it moves westward to west-northwestward \nat 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific.There is a high \nchance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these Invests.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean Sea with \naxis near 82/83W extends southward across Panama and its offshore\nwaters. It is moving westward near 10 to 15 kt. Nearby \nconvection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N105W to 10N127W to \n16N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted N of 03N and east of 107W, and from 05N to 12N between \n120W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N \nto 18N between 130W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a gale warning\nassociated with EP99, which has a high chance for TC development\nin the next 48 hours.\nModerate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec, as well as west of the Baja California peninsula.\nLight to gentle winds, and slight seas, are in the Gulf of\nCalifornia. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas,\nprevail. \nFor the forecast, aside from conditions associated with Invest \nEP99, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the \noffshore Baja California waters. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo extending \ndownstream to near 87W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail \nelsewhere. Moderate seas prevail over the offshore waters in \nlong- period southwest swell.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in \nthe Papagayo region through early Sun before diminishing. Gentle \nto moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more in EP98, with a high \nchance for TC development in the next 48 hours.\nThe remnant low of former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has\nshifted west of the area. A second area of low pressure, EP98, \nis centered near 11N122.5W. Both of these features are embedded \nwithin the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between these \nfeatures and a 1025 mb high centered N of the area near 33N137W \nis supporting moderate to fresh, locally strong, winds N of the \nmonsoon trough to near 23N and W of 120W. Moderate to rough seas\ncover these waters. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas \nare N of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds are\nfeeding into EP99, where rough seas prevail. Elsewhere S of the \nmonsoon trough, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, outside of conditions with EP98 and EP99, \ngentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211698837486338055", "issued": "2026-09-19T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211698837486338055"}