{"msg": "120\nAXNT20 KNHC 191607\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W-45W from \n08N to 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted near the wave along the monsoon\ntrough between 42W and 45.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate\nisolated strong convection is also noted across north portions of\nthe tropical wave and extend will north of the wave, from 19N to \n29N between 39W and 44W, due to a sharp surface trough extending\nN-NE from the tropical wave interacting with an upper trough \nnorthwest of the tropical wave.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 81W south of \n19N to western Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt. A low\nlevel wind surge accompanying the northern portion of the wave has\nmoved ahead of the wave axis and into the NW Caribbean. Scattered\nto locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from\n16N to 22N between 79W and 87.5W. Scattered moderate isolated\nstrong convection is noted along and S of the monsoon trough near\nthe wave between 76W and 83.5W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau\nnear 12N16.5W to 08N28W to 14N40W to 12N47W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 11N55W to 10.5N62W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 08.5N to 13N E of 20W to the\nAfrican coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to\n10N between 20W and 32W, and within 180 nm NE semicircle of 1012\nmb low pressure near 14N52.5W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA band of scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms remains \nactive over the southeast and south-central Gulf, from 22.5N to\n26.5N and E of 94.5W to the Florida coast, supported by a pair of\nupper-level low centers dominating the basin. A weak 1012 mb \nsurface low has developed below the western-most upper low near \n24.5N93W. Elsewhere at the surface, a weak high pressure remains \nacross the SE U.S. and extends a broad ridge southward across the\nnorthern Gulf, and is producing light to gentle NE to E winds \nacross the Gulf waters N of 26N. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across this \narea, except 4 to 5 ft within 150 nm N of the low at 24.5N93W. S \nof 26N light S to SE winds prevail, with isolated showers dotting \nthe SW portions. Seas there are 2-3 ft.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain \ngenerally gentle to moderate winds across the basin for the next \nseveral days. An upper-level low and associated surface \nlow/trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms today and tonight. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA modest pressure gradient between weak high pressure across the\nwestern Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South \nAmerica is allowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central \nCaribbean from 11N to 16N between 67W and 80W, where seas remain\nat 6-9 ft. Light to moderate trades are found elsewhere along \nwith seas of 4-5 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas \nover the northwest and northeast Caribbean. Upper-level low\ncenters over the Gulf of America are promoting unstable conditions\nacross the NW Caribbean, and supporting active convection ahead of\nthe tropical wave there, and described above. Elsewhere, fair\nskies prevail across the rest of the basin.\nFor the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high \npressure north of the eastern Caribbean and the Colombian Low \nwill maintain fresh to briefly strong trades over the S central \nCaribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low \nover the Gulf of America ill promote scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next \ntwo days.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA very weak pressure pattern prevails across the western Atlantic\nW of 50W today, allowing for upper level features to dominate the\nweather. An upper-level low over Florida and the NE Gulf of\nAmerica is interacting with abundant low level moisture moving W\nand NW to produce scattered to numerous moderate to strong\nconvection across the Bahamas and adjacent areas S of 27N and W of\n69W. Winds are light and variable across much of this area, except\nnear thunderstorms, with light to moderate trades N of Hispaniola\nand into the SE Bahamas. Seas are 4 ft or less. \nTo the E, an upper level trough extends into the area along 28n,\nbetween 40W and 60W. Moisture shearing northward away from the\nnorthern end of the tropical wave along 44W-45W is interacting\nfavorably with the upper trough to produce scattered to locally\nnumerous moderate isolated strong convection from 19N to 29N \nbetween 39W and 44W. Other scattered moderate convection is noted\nsouth of a surface trough along 25N between 48W and 60W. Winds are\nalso light to gentle and variable W of 44W, except moderate near\nthe tropical wave, and moderate to fresh near a drifting 1012 mb \nsurface low near 14N52.5W. East of 44W, the Azores High extends a\nridge southwestward into the area waters, producing moderate to\nlocally fresh N to NE winds N of 10N and E of 28W, and gentle to\nmoderate winds elsewhere between 28W and 40W, becoming moderate to\nlocally fresh E to SE winds near the tropical wave. Seas are 5 to\n7 ft E of 28W and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere between 28W and 40W, and 5 \nto 6 ft with and just behind the tropical wave.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient across the\nwestern Atlantic waters will promote only gentle to moderate \nwinds across forecast waters for the next several days. A vigorous\nupper-level low and abundant tropical moisture will force \nscattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the waters \nwest of 70W for at least the next two days.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211641551084519431", "issued": "2026-09-19T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211641551084519431"}