{"msg": "726\nAXPZ20 KNHC 191509\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern East Pacific (EP98): Disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms continue to persist in association with an area of \nlow pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the \nBaja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive\nfor development, and a tropical depression is expected to form \nover the next several days as it moves westward to west-\nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western East Pacific. \nThere is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next \n48 hours.\nSouth-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Recent satellite-\nderived wind data show that the area of low pressure located well\nsouth- southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is still \nelongated, and the shower and thunderstorm activity remains \ndisorganized. However, environmental conditions are conducive for\ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form over \nthe next couple of days as the system moves generally northward \noff the coast of southwestern Mexico. Interests along the \nsouthwestern and west- central coast of Mexico should monitor the\nprogress of this system. There is a high chance of tropical \ncyclone formation in the next 48 hours.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these Invests.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 108W. Please see SPECIAL\nFEATURES above for more on EP99, which developed from this\ntropical wave. \nA tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea with \naxis near 81W extends southward across Panama and its offshore \nwaters. It is moving westward near 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection\nis discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 10N106W to 07N114W to \n17N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 03N to 11N east of 100W, and from 06N to 17N between \n100W and 110W, and from 07N to 17N between 120W and 132W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more in EP99, with a high\nchance for TC development in the next 48 hours.\nModerate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec, as well as west of the Baja California peninsula.\nLight to gentle winds, and slight seas, are in the Gulf of\nCalifornia. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas,\nprevail. \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore Baja\nCalifornia will diminish this afternoon. Northwest winds over \nthese waters are expected to briefly reach fresh speeds again Mon\nnight into Tue. Otherwise, Invest EP99 is centered near 10N106W.\nEnvironmental conditions are conducive for development, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form over the next couple of \ndays as the system moves generally northward off the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system is \nforecast to bring increasing winds and seas over the Michoacan \nand Jalisco offshores tonight into Wed night. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh NE to E winds are across the Gulf of \nPapagayo extending downstream to near 88W. Moderate or weaker \nwinds prevail elsewhere. Moderate seas are over the offshore \nwaters in long-period southwest swell.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in \nthe Papagayo region through early Sun. Moderate winds and seas \nwill prevail elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more in EP99, with a high\nchance for TC development in the next 48 hours.\nThe remnant low of former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is \nlocated near 16N140W. A second area of low pressure, EP98, is \ncentered near 11.5N121.5W. Both of these features are embedded\nwithin the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between these \nfeatures and a 1024 mb high centered N of the area near 34N136W \nis supporting moderate to fresh, locally strong winds, N of the\nmonsoon trough to near 25N and W of 119W. Moderate to rough seas\ncover these waters. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas\nare N of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds southerly \nwinds are feeding into EP99, where moderate seas are building. \nElsewhere S of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds, and\nmoderate seas, prevail. \nFor the forecast, the remnant low of TD Fifteen-E will move W of\nthe area today. Outside of conditions with EP98 and EP99, gentle\nto moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211630198076604423", "issued": "2026-09-19T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211630198076604423"}