{"id": "1211626201723568135", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-19T15:00:00Z", "msg": "346\nWTNT41 KNHC 191449\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Six Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026\n \nA recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring \nsouthwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and \npeak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone \nstill has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that \narea of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However, \nthe cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of \nstrong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB \nDvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last \nforecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been \nstarted as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30 \nkt.\n\nTropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should \nstart to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for \nthe next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the \nnortheast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which \nwill force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is \nexpected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast \nperiod. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the \nHCCA and GDMI.\n\nThe depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable \nenvironment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow \nfor some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so. \nAfter 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher \nshear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact \nthe cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is \nexpected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then \ndissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF \nshow significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has \nthe cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has \ndissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity \nforecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly \nunder HCCA.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/1500Z 32.6N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 33.0N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 33.6N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 33.8N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 33.4N  32.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  22/0000Z 32.4N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 31.0N  33.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  23/1200Z 28.9N  37.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}