{"msg": "296\nAXPZ20 KNHC 190920\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0920 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern East Pacific: Low pressure, Invest EP98, is centered near\n12N119W with a pressure of 1009 mb. This feature is part of a \nrather broad area of cyclonic circulation. Satellite imagery \nexhibits scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from \n04N to 17N between 118W and 135W. Environmental conditions are \nconducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected \nto form this weekend as it moves westward to west-northwestward \nat 10 to 15 kt across the western East Pacific. The low has a \nhigh chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 \nhours and the next 7 days.\nSouth of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave, Invest EP99, has its \naxis extending from near 18N108W to 04N107W, with low pressure \nof 1009 mb, near 09N106W. This feature is part of a broad area \nlow pressure that is located about 700 nautical miles south- \nsouthwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Satellite imagery \ndepicts scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 05N \nto 15N between 99W and 112W. Environmental conditions are \nconducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected \nto form late this weekend or early next week while it moves \ngenerally northward off the coast of southwestern Mexico. This \nsystem has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through \nthe next 48 hours and a high chance of development within the \nnext 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these Invests.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea with axis near 82W \nextends southward across W Panama and its offshore waters. It is\nmoving westward near 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is from 05N to 10N between 80W and 89W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 09N106W to \n12N120W to 15N136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is from 03N to 16N between 90W and 100W, and from 07N\nto 20N between 130W and 138W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nThe pressure gradient between a ridge over eastern Mexico and \nthe eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon is supporting fresh \nN gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas with these winds\nare 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers are over the offshore waters \nbetween Oaxaca and Guerrero due to Invest EP99 and the monsoon \nsouth of the region. The gradient related to high pressure west \nof the Baja California offshores and low pressure along western \nMexico is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds N of Cabo \nSan Lazaro. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with \nmoderate seas, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec becoming moderate N to NE winds this \nafternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds offshore Baja California will\ndiminish this afternoon. Northwest winds over these waters are \nexpected to briefly reach fresh speeds again Mon night into Tue.\nOtherwise, the environmental conditions of Invest EP99, near \n09N106W, are conducive for development and a tropical depression\nis expected to form late this weekend or early next week while \nit moves generally northward off the coast of southwestern \nMexico. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to \nbring fresh to near gale-force winds and moderate to rough seas \nto the Michoacan and Jalisco offshores tonight into Wed night.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate NE to E winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo extending\ndownstream to near 88W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail \nelsewhere, except for strong winds likely ongoing across the W \nPanama and Costa Rica offshores due to strong convective activity\nassociated with a tropical wave. Seas over the offshore waters \nare slight to moderate in long-period southwest swell.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in\nPapagayo through early Sun. Moderate winds and seas will prevail\nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe remnant 1008 mb low of former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E \nis located near 16N138W. A tight gradient between the low and \nhigh pressure of 1026 mb to its north is bringing fresh to \nstrong northeast to east winds over the waters from 16N to 26N \nwest of 121W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within this area of winds. \nSatellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection from 07N to 20N between 130W and 138W. Elsewhere, \nwinds are moderate or weaker for the most part and seas are of \nmoderate state, except for moderate to fresh winds in the \nvicinity of Invest EP99. \nFor the forecast, see the Special Features section. Otherwise, \nenvironmental conditions appear conducive for some development \nof Former TD 15-E next week as it moves westward to west- \nsouthwestward, and a tropical depression could form well to the \nsouth or southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle to \nlatter part of next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211561491977633794", "issued": "2026-09-19T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211561491977633794"}