{"msg": "272\nAXNT20 KNHC 190915\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0900 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 06N \nto 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate\nconvection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered \nmoderate isolated to strong convection is also noted north of the\ntropical wave from 20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to \na sharp upper trough northwest of the tropical wave.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along\n82W/83W south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border \nof Costa Rica and Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N to\n20N between 75W and 88W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 14N17W to 10N23W to 13N44W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 13N46W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is from 08N to 11N between 15W and 25W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is also noted near 1012 mb low pressure near\n14N52W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate showers and thunderstorms is active over the\nsoutheast and south-central Gulf, south of a trough from 26N81W to\n1014 mb low pressure near 24N92W. Light to gentle E breezes\npersist across the Gulf between the weak low pressure and equally\nweak high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Seas are 1-3\nft in the eastern Gulf and 2-4 ft in the western Gulf.\nFor the forecast, ridging will dominate the Gulf region \nsupporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas \nthrough Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early \nnext week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-\nlevel low currently located over northeastern Florida will move \ninto the NE Gulf today. This feature will lead to increasing \nshower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf\nwaters. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the\nbasin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is \nallowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central Caribbean \nfrom 11N to 15N between 68W and 79W, where seas are 6-9 ft. \nModerate to fresh trades are found elsewhere along with seas of \n5-7 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over the\nnorthwest Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the\nwestern Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally maintain\nfresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas\nover most of the central Caribbean through this morning. Winds \nwill diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the \npressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA trough extends from 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Farther\neast, another trough is along 60W from 25N to 30N, and from 31N43W\nto 23N55W. This creates a weak pressure pattern supporting light\nto gentle breezes and 3-4 ft seas west of 50W. Scattered showers\nand thunderstorms are active off east-central Florida and between\nthe southern Bahamas and Bermuda. Gentle to moderate breezes and\n5-7 ft seas are noted east of 50W. As noted in the Tropical Wave\nsection, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from\n20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to a sharp upper \ntrough near 29N47W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, weak troughing will persist north \nof the Bahamas through late Sun, then dissipate. High pressure \nwill then become the dominant feature across the basin during \nthrough early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with \nslight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally\nfresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola. \nMeanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper- \nlevel low now located over central Florida, will continue to \nsupport scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms off east- \ncentral Florida and between the southern Bahamas and Bermuda \nthrough at least Sun.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211560600261427202", "issued": "2026-09-19T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211560600261427202"}