{"msg": "450\nAXNT20 KNHC 190232\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0140 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43.5W from 06N\nto 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 38W and 44W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 82W\nsouth of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border of Costa\nRica and Panama, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 20N between\n77W and 85W. Additional deep convection is present to the south \nalong the intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific \nmonsoon trough, across the coastal waters and inland portions of \nCosta Rica and Panama.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of \nSenegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 11N26W then\nnorthwestward to 14N42W. The ITCZ extends from 13N45W to 1009 mb\nlow pressure seen by a very recent ASCAT scatterometer pass at\n13N51W to along the NE coast of Venezuela at 10N65W. A surface\ntrough is analyzed south of the monsoon trough from 12N18W to\n07N39W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave \ndescribed above, isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong\nconvection is seen on conventional satellite imagery within 180 nm\neither side of the surface trough. Scattered moderate to strong\nconvection is near the surface low, from 12N to 15N between 48W\nand 53W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA few surface troughs are analyzed and impacting the Gulf. One\nextends across Central Florida to west of Tampa Bay, and another\nto the south from 25N84W to 25N95W. Isolated to widely scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are near both troughs. Moderate to\nlocally fresh winds are north of the 25N trough and west of 85W,\nalong with 3-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas\nprevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the diurnal surface trough is over \nthe western Yucatan Peninsula with convection present over the \npeninsula.\nFor the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region \nsupporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas \nthrough Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early \nnext week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-\nlevel low currently located over northeastern Florida will move \ninto the NE Gulf on Sat. This feature will lead to increasing \nshower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf\nwaters. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in\nthe western Caribbean including associated convection. \nThe pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the\nbasin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is \nallowing for fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean\nfrom 11N to 17N between 66W and 77W, where seas are 6-9 ft. \nModerate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N\nbetween 64W and 80W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to \nmoderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft remain across the remainder of\nthe basin, except for 1-3 ft seas in the NW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally \nmaintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally \nrough seas over most of the central Caribbean through early Sat \nmorning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds \nthereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area. \nModerate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast \nelsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in\nthe central Atlantic including associated convection, as well as\nconvection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ and nearby features.\nThe remnants of a stationary front as a frontal trough extend from\n31N74W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Some isolated to widely\nscattered showers are near the trough. South of the trough, upper-\nlevel disturbances riding along a jet stream branch from across \nthe northwest Caribbean to the Bahamas are supporting scattered \nmoderate convection from 18N to 28N between 61W and 77W. Another\nsurface trough is in the central Atlantic, from 31N43W to 23N57W\nas seen by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted within 120 nm either side of the trough. A\nrelatively weak pressure gradient is the result of the above\nfeatures across the basin resulting in winds of moderate or\nweaker. Moderate to fresh localized winds are over the SE Bahamas\nand Turks and Caicos with similar winds near the NE coast of South\nAmerica, and north of 17N between Africa and 23W where the\nnormally locally tight pressure gradient exists. Seas of 3-4 ft in\nmainly long period SE swell dominates the waters west of 55W\nacross the offshore waters zones. Similar seas are found north of\n23N between 30W and 55W in mainly NE swell. Seas are 5-7 ft from \n13N to 20N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, with similar\nheights north of 27N between Africa and 23W, and 3-5 ft in mixed\nNE and SE swells across the remainder of the waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from \nnear 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida will dissipate overnight. \nHigh pressure will become the dominant feature across the basin \nduring the weekend into early next week, promoting light to gentle\nwinds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of \nmoderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore\nHispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with \nan upper- level low now located over NE Florida, will continue to \nsupport scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, across \nthe central and southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas \nand Bermuda, through at least Sun.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211481349421924354", "issued": "2026-09-19T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211481349421924354"}