{"msg": "723\nAXNT20 KNHC 190001\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2345 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near \n21N44W to 11N42W. It is moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is east of the wave from 15N \nto 18N between 39W and 42W. Scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are from 12N to 16N between 33W and 39W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 80W\nsouth of 19N to central Panama and moving westward near 15 kt. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is southwest of \nJamaica, while numerous moderate to strong convection is along \nthe intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific monsoon \ntrough, across the coastal waters of Panama and Colombia.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of \nSenegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 11N21W to\n12.5N31W to 13N38W and northwestward to 16N48W. The ITCZ extends\nfrom 12N48W to 13N52W to 11N57W to 10N62W. Aside from convection\nassociated to the tropical wave described above, scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the \nITCZ between 48W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N \nto 10N between 22W-31W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nLow-level residual moisture from a recent frontal boundary\nremains over the southern Gulf south of about 26N between \nFlorida and Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is present\nfrom 22N to 26N between 82W and 94W. Isolated showers and \nthunderstorms are over some sections of the Straits of Florida.\nAt the surface, a broad high pressure ridge extends across the \nsoutheastern U.S. along about 34N, and is promoting gentle to \nmoderate easterly winds across the basin north of 25N, where \nseas are 4 to 7 ft. A trough is analyzed from near 26N90W to \n23N92W and to 21.5N95W. This feature is aiding in focusing \nconvection to its east, and promoting the strongest winds and \nseas across the basin across the northern end of the trough. \nLight to gentle mostly easterly winds prevail south of 25N per \nlatest satellite scatterometer data and buoy observations. Seas \nover this part of the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are over most of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated \nshowers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over the basin south of \n27N. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the \nGulf region supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to \nmoderate seas through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to \ngentle speeds early next week, with seas remaining slight. \nMeanwhile, a broad upper-level low currently located over \nnortheastern Florida will move into the NE Gulf on Sat. This \nfeature will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity \nover the eastern and central Gulf waters. Fairly tranquil marine\nconditions are forecast by the end of the weekend into early \nnext week. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in\nthe central Caribbean including associated convection. Upper-\nlevel disturbances riding along a jet stream branch across the \nnorthwest Caribbean are supporting scattered moderate convection \nacross the Gulf of Honduras and near the tropical wave. Elsewhere,\nfair skies prevail across the basin.\n \nThe pressure gradient between weakening high pressure over the \nwestern Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South \nAmerica is allowing for fresh to strong trades over the central \nCaribbean south of 17N between 66W and 78W, where seas are 6 to 9\nft. Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 10N to 19N\nto the east of 80W, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to \nmoderate winds, and seas of 3 to 5 ft remain across the \nremainder of the basin, except for seas to 6 ft across southwest \nportions across the western coastal waters of Panama. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over \nhe western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern\nSouth America will generally maintain fresh to strong trades \nalong with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the \ncentral Caribbean through early Sat morning. Winds will diminish \nto moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the pressure gradient \nrelaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas are forecast elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA weakening stationary front extends from near 31N72W to near \n29N79W. Broad upper level low pressure over northern Florida is \npromoting unstable conditions across much of the area W of 68W. \nConverging low-level moisture associated with the front is \nproducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 22N\nto 28N between the Straits of Florida and 68W. Similar activity \nis south of 22N between 69W and 76W, reaching the interior\nportions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Recent satellite \nscatterometer data shows gentle to moderate northeast winds\nnorth of he front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Winds are light \nto gentle between 60W and South Florida south of the front, \nexcept for fresh southeast winds along the northern coast\nof Hispaniola to 22N. Weak high pressure and light winds prevail\neast of the front to near 46W. A trough extends from near \n31N44W to 27N48W and to 25N55W. Scattered moderate convection\nis within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 49W and 55W.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 31N \nbetween 40W and 55W. To the northeast, a 1023 mb high center \nis near 35N44W. Associated broad ridging covers the eastern and\ncentral Atlantic. Mostly moderate northeast to east trades \nprevail south of 25N between the Cabo Verdes and the tropical \nwave that is along the position of 21N44W to 11N42W, where seas\nare 5 to 7 ft. Well to the east, fresh to strong north to\nnortheast winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 16N to 22N \nbetween Africa and 20W due to a tight pressure gradient between \nlow pressure in NW Africa and the Atlantic ridge. Moderate to \nfresh north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are \nelsewhere from 16N to 31N to the east of 28W. Moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical \nAtlantic waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the weakening stationary front\nwill dissipate late tonight, or early on Sat. High pressure will\nbecome the dominant feature across the basin during the weekend \ninto early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with slight\nto moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally \nfresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola. \nMeanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper- \nlevel low that is presently over northeast Florida, will \ncontinue to support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms, mainly west of about 70W through at least Sun.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211451691225153538", "issued": "2026-09-19T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211451691225153538"}