{"msg": "449\nAXPZ20 KNHC 180943\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Sep 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0920 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nA tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N with axis near 117W and \nlow pressure of 1009 mb near 12N117W (Invest EP98). The wave is \nmoving westward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery reveal \nscattered moderate to strong convection from 08N to 17N between \n112W and 124W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for \nadditional development of this system, and a tropical depression \nis likely to form this weekend as it moves westward at 10 to 15 \nkt across the western part of the East Pacific and into the \ncentral Pacific basin. There is a medium formation chance through\n48 hours and high formation chance through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 101W, \nmoving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 19N between 90W \nand 110W. The environmental conditions of the tropical wave, \nwhich is moving across the Guerrero, Mexico offshore waters is \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week\nwhile it moves gradually northwestward and then northward off \nthe coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a low formation chance\nthrough 48 hours and high formation chance through 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N1O6W to \n15N128W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical \nwaves and former TD15-E, scattered moderate to strong convection\nis from 02N to 08N between 77W and 91W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nThe pressure gradient between a ridge over the Gulf of America \nand the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon is supporting \nstrong to near-gale force N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Seas are 7 to 8 ft. A tropical wave moving across \nthe Guerrero offshore waters is producing disorganized showers \nand thunderstorms over that region. Surface ridging west of the \nBaja California offshores is supporting moderate to fresh NW \nwinds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate or weaker winds are \nelsewhere along with moderate seas, except for slight seas in the\nGulf of California. \nFor the forecast, winds will continue to pulse in Tehuantepec at\nfresh to strong speeds through Sat. The environmental conditions\nof the tropical wave moving across the Guerrero offshores is \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week\nwhile it moves gradually northwestward and then northward off \nthe coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this\nsystem is forecast to bring fresh to strong winds and moderate \nto rough seas to the Michoacan and Jalisco offshores Tue night \ninto midweek. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds will persist \nalong the Baja Peninsula offshores, reaching strong speeds at \nnight today and Mon. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of \nPapagayo extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate easterly\nwinds from this gap event are affecting the outer offshores El\nSalvador and Guatemala. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere,\nexcept for moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama \nextending to about 07N. Seas across the offshores are moderate \nin SW swell. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge north \nof the area and the eastern Pacific monsoon will support pulsing \nfresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and moderate to rough\nseas across the Papagayo region into Fri, then pulsing to \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas will \nprevail elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1008 mb low, remnant of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is \nlocated near 17N134W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds \nare within 480 nm northern semcircle of the low. Seas are 7 to \n10 ft with these winds. Satellite imagery shows scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 21N between 124W \nand 140W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 9 ft \nare within 210 nm northern semicircle of a 1009 mb low associated\nwith Invest EP98. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and\nseas are moderate, except rough in the vicinity of EP98.  \nFor the forecast, see the Special Features and the Tropical Waves\nSection. Otherwise, environmental conditions appear only \nmarginally conducive for some development of the remnants of\nTD 15-E as it moves gradually westward, remaining east-southeast\nof the Hawaiian Islands. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211282860328452098", "issued": "2026-09-18T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211282860328452098"}