{"msg": "311\nAXPZ20 KNHC 180408\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Sep 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nA tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N with axis near 116W with\nlow pressure of 1008 mb near 12N116W. The wave is moving \nwestward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery reveals scattered \nmoderate to strong convection from 08N to 15N between 110W and\n123W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely \nto form this weekend as it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt across \nthe western part of the East Pacific and into the central Pacific\nbasin. There is a medium formation chance through 48 \nhours and high formation chance through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 100W, \nmoving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 16N between 97W \nand 109W. The environmental conditions of the tropical wave,\nwhich is moving across the Guerrero, Mexico offshores is \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week\nwhile it moves gradually northwestward and then northward off \nthe coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a low formation \nchance through 48 hours and high formation chance through 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 07N1O3W to \n13N123W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical\nwaves and former TD15-E, numerous moderate to strong convection\nis from 02N to 09N between 81W and 95W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nThe pressure gradient between a ridge over the Gulf of America \nand the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon is supporting \nstrong to near-gale force N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of \nTehuantepec as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas are 8\nto 9 ft. A tropical wave moving across the Guerrero offshore\nwaters is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over\nthat region. Surface ridging west of the Baja California\noffshores is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San\nLazaro. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with\nmoderate seas, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, winds will continue to pulse in Tehuantepec at\nfresh to strong speeds through Sat morning, with seas lowering \nto 6 ft. The environmental conditions of the tropical wave moving\nacross the Guerrero offshores is conducive for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely \nto form late this weekend or early next week while it moves \ngradually northwestward and then northward off the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds will\npersist along the Baja Peninsula offshores, reaching strong\nspeeds at night Fri and Mon.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRecent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE to E winds \nacross the Gulf of Papagayo extending downstream to near 89W. \nScatterometer data show moderate or weaker winds elsewhere,\nexcept for fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Panama\nextending to about 07N. Altimeter data reveal moderate seas\nacross the majority of the region. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north\nof the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will \nsupport pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and \nmoderate to rough seas across the Papagayo into Fri, then pulsing to \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas will prevail \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe 1006 mb remnant low of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is \nlocated near 16N133W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are over \nthe waters to the northwest of the low pressure. Seas are 7 to \n10 ft with these winds. Satellite imagery shows scattered\nmoderate convection from 08N to 20N between 123 W and 139W.\nFresh to strong winds and rough seas supported by the pressure \ngradient between the area of low pressure and the subtropical \nridge north of the area, cover the waters from 15N to 25N west of\n125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in \nmixed swell are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, see the Special Features and the Tropical Waves\nSection. Otherwise, environmental conditions appear only \nmarginally conducive for some development of the remnants of\nTD 15-E as it moves gradually westward, remaining east-southeast\nof the Hawaiian Islands. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211217047646306306", "issued": "2026-09-18T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211217047646306306"}