{"msg": "151\nAXPZ20 KNHC 172345 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026\nCorrected Remainder of the Area section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high\npressure over southern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific \nmonsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N to NE gap\nwinds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Fri. Winds earlier \nthis morning were at gale-force, but have recently diminished to \njust below gale-force. Winds may again reach minimal gale force \nbriefly tonight along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Winds will continue \nto pulse in the Gulf at fresh to strong speeds through Sat\nmorning, with seas lowering to a peak of around 6 ft. Please read \nthe latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml \nfor more details.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 115.5W from 07N to 18N, \nwith low pressure of 1009 mb near 12N115.5W. It is moving \nwestward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery reveals scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection between the wave and \n118W, and also from 11N to 14N between 111W and 116W. Environmental\nconditions appear conducive for additional development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next \nweek as it moves westward across the western part of the East \nPacific. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook\nat website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has is its axis along 99W from 05N northward to \nextreme southern Mexico near Acapulco. It is moving westward at \naround 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is seen from 08N to 13N between 94W and 100W. An area\nof low pressure could form in association to this wave well \noffshore of southwestern Mexico within the next few days. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form late \nthis weekend or early next week while it gradually moves \nnorthwestward and then northward off the coast of southwestern \nMexico.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 115.5W from 07N to 18N, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. See the Special Features section \nabove for related information.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of northwest \nColombia west-southwest to across the Costa Rica/Panamanian\nborder, then to 09N84W to 07N1OOW to 09N110W to low pressure,\nInvest EP98, near 12N115.5W 1009 mb and to 12N124W. Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 13N between \n100W-106W, and from 06N to 09N between 118W-124W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between\n91W-95W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see Special Features section above for details on a Gale\nWarning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nMostly gentle to moderate northwest winds across the central and\nsouthern sections of the Gulf of California while light and\nvariable winds are over the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas \nare 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3 \nto 5 ft at the entrance due to long-period southwest swell.\nFor the forecast, please see the Special Features section for \ninformation about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nGentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist into\nthe weekend over the regional Mexican waters. The exception is \nalong and offshore the northern and central portions of Baja \nCalifornia, where northwest winds will pulse at fresh to locally\nstrong speeds into Sat night. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are expected \nover these waters through the weekend. Meanwhile, a tropical wave\nlocated to the southeast of of Acapulco, Mexico is producing \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms over the outer offshore \nwaters of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. Looking ahead, \nenvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form late \nthis weekend or early next week while it moves gradually \nnorthwestward and then northward off the coast of southwestern \nMexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, \nprevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream \nto near 92W. Moderate to fresh east winds extend downstream from\nthe Gulf of Papagayo to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador\nand Guatemala. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north\nof the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will \nsupport pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and \nmoderate to rough seas across the Papagayo into Fri, then pulsing to \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas will prevail \nelsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe 1006 mb remnant low of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is \nlocated near 15N133W. A 1912Z scatterometer satellite data pass \nshows fresh to strong northeast winds over the waters to the \nnorthwest of the low pressure near 26N. Seas are 7 to 10 ft with \nthese winds per latest scatterometer satellite altimeter data. \nSatellite imagery shows numerous isolated strong convection from\n14N to 18N between 129W and 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is present from 02N tom 07N between 125W and \n132W and from 14N to 20N between 120W and 129W.\nFresh to strong winds and rough seas supported by the pressure \ngradient between the area of low pressure and the subtropical \nridge north of the area, cover the waters from 15N to 25N west of\n125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in \nmixed swell are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for \ngradual development of the tropical wave along 115.5W, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next\nweek as it moves westward across the western part of the eastern\nPacific. Farther west, a broad area of fresh to strong northeast\nto east winds and moderate to rough seas in north swell will \npersist through the remainder of the week from 15N to 25N west of \n125W through the weekend. Also, as described in the Tropical Waves \nsection above, there is some potential for tropical cyclone \ndevelopment associated with a tropical wave that is near 99W for \nlate this weekend or early next week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211165309584113666", "issued": "2026-09-17T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211165309584113666"}