{"msg": "898\nAXNT20 KNHC 171641\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1640 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe tropical wave over the central Atlantic has been repositioned\nbased on satellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics. The \nwave axis is near 34W, south of 16.5N. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 10N to 17N between 30W and 39W.\nA tropical wave in the E Caribbean has been repositioned based on\nsatellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics. The wave axis is\nnear 70W, south of 22N. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 17N to 22N between 68W and the wave axis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends\nsouthwestward to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to 10N59W. \nAside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, \nscattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N west of\n20W. Similar convection is depicted from 07N to 11N between 45W \nand 49W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate convection is depicted west of 91W in \nassociation to a surface trough over the area. Another trough\nextends from the western Atlantic to south Florida to 24N86W.\nScattered moderate convection is also present along this trough. The\npressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure over the SE of \nthe United States and the aforementioned surface trough over the \nSE Gulf supports fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas over the NE\nand north- central Gulf.  Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, \nand slight seas, are noted.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will \nspread westward over the remainder of the northern Gulf waters \nthrough tonight before improving Fri into Sat. Meanwhile, a rather\nbroad upper- level low will move towards Florida from the western\nAtlantic today through Fri. This feature will lead to increasing \nshower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf\nwaters. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nAn upper level trough is supporting scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. While, a mid-level \ntrough is supporting numerous showers west of 81.5W. Please read \nthe Tropical Wave section above for additional convection across \nthe basin. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the area\nalong with lower pressure over Colombia- Venezuela is supporting \nfresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean. Seas 6 to 8 \nft are over these waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate \nseas, are elsewhere east of 84W. West of 84W, gentle to moderate \nwinds and seas 2 to 4 ft prevail. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will \ngenerally maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to \nlocally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through the \nend of the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and moderate \nseas will continue across the eastern Caribbean through the \nweekend while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas \nwill dominate the NW part of the basin. A tropical wave is \nentering the central Caribbean, and will reach the western \nCaribbean over the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms \nwill accompany the passage of the wave. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to\nOcean Reef, Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas 5 to 6 ft \nprevail N of the front. Scattered moderate convection is noted\nnorth of 23N and west of 66W in association to this frontal\nboundary. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are SE of the \nfront N of 23N and W of 55W. An upper level trough that extends\nfrom north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to around \n31N is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 24N \nbetween 56W and 70W and north of 26N between 40W and 59W. \nAdditional convection in the basin is described in the Tropical \nWaves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above. Fresh to locally \nstrong NE winds, and moderate seas, are noted near the Canary \nIslands, extending SW to near 30W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate \nwinds and moderate seas prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high \npressure over the southeastern U.S. and a stationary front that \nextends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas will maintain moderate\nto fresh NE winds and moderate seas west of the front through \ntoday. Conditions will improve late today into Fri as high \npressure becomes the dominant feature across the basin into the \nweekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level low located east of \nFlorida in combination with a very moist and unstable environment \nwill continue to support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over most of the forecast waters the next few days \nas it moves toward Florida on Fri. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1211081941648867330", "issued": "2026-09-17T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1211081941648867330"}