{"msg": "195\nAXPZ20 KNHC 170303\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Sep 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over southern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific\nmonsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N to NE \ngap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu, and will \nreach minimal gale force overnight tonight and briefly Thu night.\nRough seas will accompany these gap winds.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has been added to the surface map with axis near\n99W/100W, from 06N northward to southern Mexico. The wave is \nmoving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is \ndiscussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. An area of \nlow pressure could form in association to this wave well offshore\nof southwestern Mexico within the next few days. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for some gradual development, and \nthis system could become a tropical depression early next week \nwhile it moves slowly northwestward or northward. There is a low \nchance for development in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance \nfor tropical cyclone development within the next 7 days. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 07N to 16N, moving\nwest at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N90W to 1007 mb low\npressure near 15N129W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 90W and 105W.\nScattered moderate convection is active from 12N to 16N between \n110W and 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see Special Features section above for more on a gale \nwarning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAn afternoon scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh S \nwinds over the northern Gulf of California, related to lower\npressure in the region. These winds are likely diminishing this\nevening. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft are noted \nelsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the central and southern Gulf.\nFor the forecast, please see the Special Features section for \ninformation about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nElsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will \npersist. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, \nprevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream \nto near 90W. Moderate to fresh winds extend downstream from the \nGulf of Papagayo to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and \nGuatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nare noted.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of\nthe area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will \nsupport pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and \nmoderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region into Thu, then \npulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas \nwill prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe 1007 mb remnant low of TD Fifteen-E is centered near \n15N129W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active in the\nvicinity of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, \nsupported by the pressure gradient between the area of low \npressure and the subtropical ridge north of the area, cover the \nwaters from 15N to 25N west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds \nand 4-6 ft combined seas in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds\nand moderate to rough seas in N swell will persist through the \nremainder of the week from 15N to 25N west of 125W. The \nsoutherly swell south of 03N will subside below 8 ft by this \nevening. Looking, as described in the tropical wave section\nabove, there is some potential for tropical cyclone development\nassociated with a tropical wave near 100W.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210921179228700674", "issued": "2026-09-17T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210921179228700674"}