{"msg": "704\nAXPZ20 KNHC 162014\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over southern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific\nmonsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N to NE \ngap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu, and will \nreach minimal gale force overnight tonight and briefly Thu night.\nRough seas will accompany these gap winds.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has been added to the surface map with axis near\n99W, from 04N northward to S Mexico. The wave is moving westward\nat around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below. An area of low pressure could \nform in association to this wave well offshore of southwestern \nMexico within the next few days. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for some gradual development, and this system could \nbecome a tropical depression early next week while it moves \nslowly northwestward or northward. There is a low chance for \ndevelopment in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for \ntropical cyclone development within the next 7 days. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 113 from 02N to 17N, moving \nwest at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 15N129W to \n10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N \nE of 93W, and from 04N to 14N between 97W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see Special Features section above for more on a gale \nwarning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nModerate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are over the \nnorthern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft \nare noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the central and southern \nGulf.\nFor the forecast, please see the Special Features section for \ninformation about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nElsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will \npersist. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, \nprevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream \nto near 90W. Moderate to fresh winds extend downstream from the \nGulf of Papagayo to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and \nGuatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nare noted.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of\nthe area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will \nsupport pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and \nmoderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region into Thu, then \npulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas \nwill prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe remnant low of TD Fifteen-E is centered near 16N129W. \nScattered showers and thunderstorms remain active in the vicinity\nof the low. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, supported by \nthe pressure gradient between the area of low pressure and the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area, cover the waters from 14N to\n23N west of 125W. Farther south, cross- equatorial SW swell to 8\nft is reaching as far north as 02N between 115W and 125W. Gentle\nto moderate winds and 4-6 ft combined seas in mixed swell are \nnoted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds\nand moderate to rough seas in N swell will persist through the \nremainder of the week from 15N to 25N west of 125W. The \nsoutherly swell south of 03N will subside below 8 ft by this \nevening.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210840842464460802", "issued": "2026-09-16T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210840842464460802"}