{"msg": "425\nAXNT20 KNHC 161531\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1330 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 16N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 08N-16N between 23W-32W. \nA sharp tropical wave is moving across E Caribbean, located along\n64W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection is present from 13N-18N between \n56W-63W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal near\n15N18W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 09N39W to 09N54W. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N-16N \nbetween 23W-32W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure over the SE United States is helping to force fresh\nto locally strong E winds in the NE Gulf with seas 5-6 ft.\nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-4 ft. Isolated\nmoderate convection is located over most of the Gulf north of 22N\neast of 95W.\nFor the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure ridging \nover the eastern U.S. that stretches southwestward to the \nsoutheastern U.S. will generally allow for fresh to strong \nnortheast to east winds and moderate to rough seas over the NE \nGulf this afternoon, spreading to across the rest of the northern \nGulf waters through late Thu night. Conditions will improve across\nthe basin Fri into Sat, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and\nslight to moderate seas during the weekend. Meanwhile, a rather \nbroad mid to upper- level trough over the Bahamas will move toward\nFlorida Thu through Fri leading to increasing shower and \nthunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe moderate pressure gradient between ridging north of the area \nalong with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is forcing only\nfresh trades over the S central Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft.\nAdditionally, the trades are locally fresh over the Lesser\nAntilles with seas 4-6 ft through the passages in association \nwith the sharp tropical wave over the E Caribbean. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is present from 13N-18N \nbetween 56W-63W. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas\n3-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N \nin the SW Caribbean in association with the monsoon trough from \nthe NE Pacific.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in South \nAmerica will generally maintain fresh to locally near gale-force \ntrades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the \ncentral Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate\nto fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the \neastern Caribbean through the weekend as winds diminish and seas \nsubside elsewhere across the basin as the pressures gradient \nrelaxes. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will \nreach the western Caribbean during the upcoming weekend expected \nto be accompanied with scattered showers and thunderstorms.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to\nthe N Bahamas. Winds poleward of the front are NE fresh to locally\nstrong with seas 6-8 ft. Isolated moderate convection is \noccurring from 20N-31N between 55W-75W in association with the \nfront as well as a vigorous tropical upper-tropospheric trough \n(TUTT) extending from the Greater Antilles to near Bermuda.\nElsewhere a surface trough extends from 22N36W to 31N34W with\nisolated moderate convection from 29N-31N between 30W-42W. Winds \nare N strong to near-gale along the Agadir coast of Morrocco with \nseas 5-7 ft. Winds are also N fresh to strong through the Canary \nIslands with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere winds across the tropical \nNorth Atlantic are gentle to moderate with seas 3-6 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a stationary front \nthat extends from just east of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas will \nbring fresh to strong northeast winds and build seas to a rough \nstate north of the Bahamas and west of about 70W through Thu. \nConditions will improve late Thu into Fri as broad ridging \ndominates the basin into the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad mid to \nupper-level trough located just east of the southeastern Bahamas \nin combination with a very moist and unstable environment will \ncontinue to support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over most of the forecast waters through the next \nfew days as the system shifts northwestward. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210785120704036866", "issued": "2026-09-16T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210785120704036866"}