{"msg": "130\nAXNT20 KNHC 161023\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1015 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 18N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 04N to 15N and between 19W and 31W. \nA sharp tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles,\nlocated along 61W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. \nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from \n12N to 20N and between 54W and 64W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues \nto 09N30W and to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 06N57W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either \nside of the boundaries between 33W and 55W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA dissipating stationary front is located from Tampa Bay to\n29N85W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the Gulf\nwaters, with the strongest storms occurring off NW Yucatan. High\npressure over the SE United States supports moderate to fresh\neasterly winds and moderate seas east of 90W and in the eastern\nBay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to\nmoderate seas are prevalent.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned front is expected to \ndissipate later today. A 1027 mb high pressure system over the SE \nUnited States will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and \nmoderate to rough seas starting in the NE Gulf this afternoon, \nspreading over the rest of the northern Gulf waters through Thu \nnight. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri into Sat, \nallowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas \nduring the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the\nBahamas will move toward Florida over the next few days, \nincreasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and \ncentral Gulf waters..\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA tight pressure gradient continues to sustain fresh to strong\neasterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across the\ncentral Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate\nseas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee\nof Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. \nDivergence aloft support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms\nover eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and surrounding waters. Similar\nconvection is seen in the Bay of Campeche and SW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh\nto locally near gale-force trades and moderate to locally rough \nseas across across much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to\nfresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail in the eastern\nCaribbean. These conditions will persist through Fri night. Winds\nwill diminish and seas subside across the basin during the \nweekend as the pressures gradient relaxes. A strong tropical wave \nwill move across the basin over the next few days supporting \nscattered showers and thunderstorms. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from near Bermuda to near Cocoa Beach,\nFlorida. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft are \nnoted behind the front. A buoy near 31N71W recently reported 9 ft.\nMeanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas and\nHispaniola is producing scattered to numerous showers and isolated\nthunderstorms west of 62W and south of the front. Moderate to\nfresh easterly trade and moderate seas are noted south of 25N and\nwest of 55W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure supports slight to\ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the rest of the SW\nNorth Atlantic.\nAnother upper-level trough is noted in the north-central Atlantic\nproducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of\n25N and between 47W and 57W. The remainder of the tropical\nAtlantic is under the influence of a strong subtropical ridge\ncentered north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and\nmoderate seas are evident south of 20N and west of 40W. Moderate\nto locally fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate seas are\noccurring in the remainder of the eastern and central tropical\nAtlantic.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will shift\nsouthward over the next day or so and dissipate. The tight \npressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure over the SE \nUnited States and the aforementioned front will result in fresh to\nlocally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the \nBahamas and W of 70W today through Thu. Conditions will improve \nlate Thu into Fri, as broad ridging dominates the basin into the \nweekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas\nand Hispaniola will support scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms over much of the area over the next few days as the \nsystem shifts northwestward. .\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210724523413831682", "issued": "2026-09-16T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210724523413831682"}