{"id": "1210562859299405826", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-15T21:00:00Z", "msg": "218\nWTPZ45 KNHC 152041\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026\n\nThe depression remains disorganized with a small area of convection \ndisplaced to the south and east per visible satellite imagery. An \n18Z ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated that the depression's center \nhas become more elongated than earlier today, along with weaker \nwinds. The initial intensity is set to 25 kt, per the \nscatterometer data, which also mirrors the drop in recent \nconventional estimates. \n \nThe system is moving at an estimated motion of 255/10 kt. A\ngeneral westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast to \ncontinue over the next day along the southern edge of a mid-level \nridge. The biggest change to the forecast is that since the \nlow-level center is less defined, the system is probably less \nresilient to persistent dry air entrainment and shear. The new NHC \nforecast holds the intensity at 25 kt and brings up the dissipation \ntime to 24 hours, in line with the latest model guidance. It is \neven possible it could degenerate into a trough as early as tonight \nif current trends continue.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/2100Z 15.7N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 15.2N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 15.0N 128.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}