{"msg": "370\nAXPZ20 KNHC 150843\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.1N 122.6W at\n15/0900 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with\ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. Ongoing shear and entrainment\nof dry air over the next several days will prevent this system\nfrom developing into a tropical storm. However, strong to near-\ngale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany\nFifteen-E mainly on the north side of the low pressure as it\ncontinues to move westward over the next two to three days. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nFifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov\nfor more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building over southern Mexico will\nsupport strong to near-gale force N to NE gap winds across the\nGulf of Tehuantepec into Wed, and will reach minimal gale force\nWed night. Rough seas will accompany these gap winds.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 104W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 15\nkt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 15N between \n100W and 105W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N90W to 10N105W to \n06N120W, and from 13N120W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is active from 04N to 12N between 80W and 100W, and \nfrom 10N to 15N between 125W and 130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nNumerous showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of \nEl Salvador beyond 90 nm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms \nare also active off Guerrero in southwest Mexico. Farther north,\nN swell along with fresh N winds are supporting combined seas to\n8 ft west of Guadalupe Island. 1002 mb low pressure over the \nColorado River valley is supporting fresh SE winds across the \nnorthern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds \nare starting over the northern Gulf of Tehuantepec, following a \ntropical wave passing to the west farther south. Fresh E to SE \nwinds are likely off Guerrero beyond 90 nm following the tropical\nwave. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere, \nexcept 1-3 ft in the central and southern Gulf.\nFor the forecast, please see the Special Features section for \ninformation about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nElsewhere, fresh SE to S winds pulse across the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia through Wed. Large N swell off Baja California Norte \nnear Guadalupe Island will subside through mid week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds with moderate seas across the Gulf of \nPapagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate to\nfresh winds from this gap wind extends to the outer offshore\nwaters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Convection \ncontinues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to \nsupport pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and \nmoderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through mid \nweek, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate \nwinds and seas will prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.\nThe center of Tropical Depression Norbert is centered west of the\ndiscussion area near 20.3N 141.7W at 15/0900 UTC, moving west at\n12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained\nwind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms, along with fresh to strong E winds and 8-10 ft \nseas are active northeast of the center, reaching from 21N to 23N\nbetween 137W and 140W. \nPlease read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP1.shtml and Forecast/ \nAdvisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP1.shtml for \nmore details. \nElsewhere, N swell to 8 ft is impacting the waters north of 29N \nbetween 120w and 125W. SW swell from the southern hemisphere is \ncross the equator and reaching as far north as 04N between 95W \nand 120W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft combined seas in \nmixed swell are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, winds and seas following Norbert will diminish\nthrough late today east of 140W. \nFifteen-E will move to 15.8N 124.0W this afternoon, 15.5N 126.0W\nWed morning, 15.4N 128.0W Wed afternoon, 15.5N 130.0W Thu morning,\nbecome a remnant low and move to 15.5N 132.4W Thu afternoon, and\n15.6N 134.8W Fri morning. Fifteen-E will change little in intensity\nas it moves to 16.3N 139.0W early Sat. Fresh to strong winds and\nmoderate to rough seas on the northern envelop of Fifteen-E will\ncover the area from 15N to 25N east of 120W through Fri.\nThe southerly swell to 8 ft south of 04N will subside through\nlate today, as will the northerly swell north of 29N between 120W\nand 125W.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210421844497170434", "issued": "2026-09-15T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210421844497170434"}