{"id": "1210421012200652802", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-15T09:00:00Z", "msg": "163\nWTPZ45 KNHC 150839\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026\n200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026\n \nInfrared and proxy-visible satellite imagery continue to show that \nconvection remains displaced to the southeast of the low-level \ncenter of the depression. Recent 0519 UTC Metop-B and 0541 UTC \nMetop-C scatterometer passes indicate that the center is becoming \nelongated, and stretched out with maximum winds of 28 kt. Therefore, \nthe initial intensity is kept at 30 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe system is moving at an estimated motion of 260/9 kt. A generally \nwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as the system is \nsteered along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge to its north. \nThe latest NHC track forecast was shifted southward once again and \ntrends towards the HCCA and simple TVCN consensus aids.\n \nThe depression remains within a moderate wind shear environment, \nwith dry mid-level air entraining into the center. Although shear is \nforecast to decrease in about a day, the models show very little \nstrengthening. Toward the end of the forecast period, wind shear is \nexpected to increase once again, and the depression will move into \nan even drier, more stable airmass, causing the system to weaken and \nstruggle to produce deep convection. The latest NHC forecast calls \nfor the system to maintain its current intensity and remain below \ntropical storm strength. The system is forecast to become a \npost-tropical cyclone by 60 h, and  open into a trough by day 5.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/0900Z 16.1N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  17/1800Z 15.5N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  18/0600Z 15.6N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}