{"msg": "700\nAXPZ20 KNHC 150322\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nNewly downgraded Tropical Depression Norbert is centered near \n20.2N 140.5W at 15/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. \nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained \nwind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas about 13 ft. \nNorbert remains a heavily sheared storm, with a small area of\nscattered moderate convection between 120-150 nm in the NE \nquadrant of the center. Norbert is moving toward the westward and\nis expected to maintain this general motion during the next \ncouple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 \nhours, and Norbert is expected to become a post- tropical remnant\nlow tomorrow.\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.5N 121.6W at\n15/0300 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with\ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. The center of Fifteen-E\nremains exposed, but numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted within 60-240 nm in the southeast semicircle\nof the center. Fifteen-E has a compact and well-organized center,\nand is expected to intensify to a minimal tropical storm\novernight. But it will struggle to maintain this intensity as it\ncontinues in a westward direction, and it is expected to start\nweakening in a couple of days. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNorbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public \nAdvisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 103W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 15\nkt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 100W\nand 105W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N115W to 14N130W to \nbeyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N\nto 11N between 80W and 90W, and from 03N to 07N between 115W and\n120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nNumerous showers and thunderstorms are active near the Gulf of\nFonseca and the coast of El Salvador. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are also active off western Oaxaca and eastern\nGuerrero in southwest Mexico. Farther north, N swell along with\nfresh N winds are supporting combined seas to 8 ft west of\nGuadalupe Island. 1000 mb low pressure over the Colorado River \nvalley is supporting fresh SE winds across the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are starting over \nthe northern Gulf of Tehuantepec, following a tropical wave \npassing to the west farther south. Fresh E to SE winds are likely\noff Guerrero beyond 90 nm following the tropical wave. Gentle to\nmoderate winds and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in\nthe central and southern Gulf.\nFor the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters of\nBaja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N\nwinds through the early part of the week. Expect fresh winds\nacross the northern Gulf of California through the early part of\nthe week due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and\nlower pressure over the Colorado River valley. Winds will\nfreshen again off Baja California by the end of the week,\nlocally strong near Punta Eugenia. Expect strong to near-gale N \ngap winds and rough seas across the Tehuantepec by the middle of \nthe week. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds with moderate seas across the Gulf of \nPapagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate to\nfresh winds from this gap wind extends to the outer offshore\nwaters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Convection \ncontinues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then\npulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally \nfresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early\nThu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with\nmoderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos\nIslands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern\nPanama.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Depression Norbert and Tropical Depression \nFifteen-E.\nAway from the impacts of T.D. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly\nmoderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west \nof 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found \nsouth of 02N to the W of the Galapagos to 115W. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Norbert will continue to weaken as the center\nmoves west of 140W overnight. Strong winds and rough seas will \nfollow Norbert west of 135W from 18N to 28N through Tue. \nFifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.7N 121.8W \nTue morning, move to 16.6N 123.7W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 125.4W Wed\nmorning, 16.4N 127.3W Wed afternoon, 16.6N 129.7W Thu morning, \nand weaken to a remnant low near 16.9N 132.1W Thu afternoon. \nFifteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves near 17.5N \n136.4W Fri afternoon. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210358727173177346", "issued": "2026-09-15T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210358727173177346"}