{"id": "1210349243300380674", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-15T03:00:00Z", "msg": "597\nWTPZ45 KNHC 150234\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026\n800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026\n\nVisible satellite imagery continues to show the exposed center of \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E well to the west of the convective \narea, due to westerly vertical wind shear of 10 to 15 kt affecting \nthe system.  In fact, the center has ran out farther ahead to the \nwest of the convection compared to earlier today, now about 40-45 n \nmi from the nearest deep convection.  The latest subjective and \nobjective satellite intensity estimates range from 29-35 kt.  An \nearlier ASCAT-B overpass at 14/1630 UTC showed peak vectors of 27 kt \nlocated 60 to 80 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle.  \nThe initial intensity is held at 30 kt since the tropical cyclone \nhas not become any better organized since the time of the ASCAT \npass.\n\nSatellite fixes over the past 12 to 18 hours have been a bit \nerratic, but generally indicate a motion slightly south of due west, \nor 260 degrees at 9 knots.  Ridging to the northwest of the \ndepression should keep it on a similar heading for the next couple \nof days.  By late Wednesday, global models show the orientation of \nthe ridge changing slightly, which should cause the depression to \nturn to a direction between west and west-northwest with a slight \nincrease in forward speed for the remainder of the forecast period. \nThe latest NHC track forecast is a bit south of the previous one, \nand lies between the farther north TVCN and the farther south HCCA \nand GDMI.  It should be noted that the cross track spread is quite \nlarge from hour 24 onward, and confidence in the track forecast is \nbelow average.\n\nThe environment is generally unfavorable for significant \nstrengthening due to the moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear \nadvecting some dry air into the center of the depression.  Even \nthough this shear should decrease some over the next 24 h, the \nintensity models are in good agreement that this system is unlikely \nto strengthen beyond a low-end tropical storm.  Given how far any \nconvection is from the center currently, and that the system should \nstart weakening in a couple of days as it reaches a drier \nenvironment, significant intensification appears unlikely.  The \ndepression could potentially become post-tropical or dissipate \nsooner than this forecast indicates.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/0300Z 16.5N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 16.3N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 16.2N 124.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 16.1N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  17/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 16.6N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/0000Z 17.2N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}