{"msg": "380\nAXNT20 KNHC 142348\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2330 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave axis is along 53W, from 07N to 18N, moving west at\n10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 09N to\n19N between 47W and 56W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues \nto 08N31W to 09N48W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is\nfrom 05N to 14N between 07W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection\nis elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 18W and 45W.  \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nWidely scattered showers are basin-wide. Otherwise, a 1019 mb \nhigh pressure offshore SE Louisiana dominates the Gulf waters, \nsupporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the Yucatan Peninsula\nand over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and moderate SE winds W of\n94W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the NE Gulf will persist into\nTue supporting relatively tranquil conditions across much of the \nbasin. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal \ntrough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each \nevening through late this week, bringing nightly pulses of fresh \nNE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building \nsouthward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing \nNE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong\nand rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night. \nConditions will improve Fri through Sat. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe subtropical ridge centered north of the Bahamas and lower \npressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh to locally near \ngale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across \nmuch of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades \nelsewhere from 11N to 18N. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and\ntstms are ongoing over the SW Caribbean between Colombia and NE\nNicaragua due to the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon.\nScattered heavy showers are ongoing over the E Caribbean being\nfueled by abundant moisture and upper level diffluent flow. \nFor the forecast, fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade\nwinds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central \nCaribbean will persist through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate \nor lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected, except \nmoderate to fresh mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage\nand Lee of Cuba through midweek. Winds may diminish across the \nbasin by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the \npressures gradient relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA broad subtropical ridge dominates much of the basin, forcing \nfresh easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. \nA surface trough prevails in the central subtropical Atlantic\nextending from 24N49W to 30N50W, which is producing scattered\nheavy showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and between \n43W and 59W. Environmental conditions over the system are forecast \nto become more conducive for development by the middle of this week. \nA tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves \nslowly west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic. There is a \nmedium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next seven \ndays. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail \nover the central and eastern subtropical waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, on Tue, strong high pressure \nbuilding southward through the eastern United States will bring a \ncold front into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to \nlocally strong and causing seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas\nand W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve later Thu\ninto Fri. During the middle to later portion of the week, a \ntrough of low pressure is forecast to move west-northwestward \ninto the NE portion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms while \nalso weakening the high and pressure gradient. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210316632269815810", "issued": "2026-09-14T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210316632269815810"}