{"msg": "440\nAXPZ20 KNHC 142204\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2150 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 19.7N 139.2W at 14/2100\nUTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45\nkt. Peak seas are up to 15 ft. Norbert is a sheared storm, with \nnumerous moderate convection noted from 18N to 23N between 134W \nand 139W. Norbert is moving toward the west near 15 kt and is \nexpected to maintain this general motion during the next couple \nof days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,\nand Norbert is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low \ntomorrow.\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.9N 120.5W at\n14/2100 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with\ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. Numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 114W\nand 121W, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 09N \nto 14N between 111W and 127W. The depression is moving toward \nthe west near 9 kt and this generally westward motion should \ncontinue for the next several days with some increase in forward \nspeed. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 \nhours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later \ntoday. The system is expected to weaken beginning Tuesday night \nor Wednesday.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNorbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public \nAdvisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 102W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 15\nkt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to \n15N between 91W and 108W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N97W to 06N122W to \n12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nactive from 04N to 15N E of 93W, and from 00N to 07N between \n106W and 136W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nScattered showers and tstms are across the SW Mexican offshores \nbetween Chiapas and Guerrero as well as the southern half of the\nGulf of California. Moderte to fresh N to NE winds are in the \nTehuantepec region, while moderate easterlies are elsewhere from \nChiapas to Guerrero. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the\nnorthern half of the Gulf of California while NW winds of the \nsame speed are N of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 7 \nto 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of \nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters \nof Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N \nwinds through the midweek. Expect fresh winds across the \nnorthern Gulf of California through the early part of the week \ndue to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure\nover the Colorado River valley. Winds will freshen again off \nBaja California by the end of the week, locally strong near Punta\nEugenia. Looking ahead, expect strong to near-gale N gap winds \nand rough seas across the Tehuantepec by the middle of the week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds with moderate seas across the Gulf of \nPapagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate to\nfresh winds from this gap wind extends to the outer offshore\nwaters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Convection \ncontinues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then\npulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally \nfresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early\nThu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with\nmoderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos\nIslands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern\nPanama.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly\nmoderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west \nof 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found \nsouth of 02N to the W of The Galapagos to 114W. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Norbert will weaken to a tropical depression \nnear 20.0N 141.3W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to \n20.2N 143.9W Tue afternoon, 20.4N 146.6W Wed morning, and \ndissipate Wed afternoon. \nMeanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.7N\n121.8W Tue morning, move to 16.6N 123.7W Tue afternoon, 16.4N\n125.4W Wed morning, 16.4N 127.3W Wed afternoon, 16.6N 129.7W Thu\nmorning, and weaken to a remnant low near 16.9N 132.1W Thu\nafternoon. Fifteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves\nnear 17.5N 136.4W Fri afternoon. \nElsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next \nseveral days producing seas to 9 ft south of 05N. A tight \npressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough \nseas in the north of 22N and east of 125W through midweek.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210296157374939138", "issued": "2026-09-14T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210296157374939138"}