{"id": "1210279836051046402", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-14T21:00:00Z", "msg": "035\nWTPZ44 KNHC 142041\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 AM HST Mon Sep 14 2026\n \nDeep convection is decreasing in intensity and coverage east \nof Norbert's center with warming cloud-top temperatures. The center \nis becoming exposed to the southwest of the convection, while also \nbecoming more elongated in nature. These factors suggest that a \nweakening trend is imminent. However, satellite intensity estimates \nhave not changed in the past several hours, and a scatterometer pass \naround 1830z still depicted max winds of 35 kt northeast of the \ncenter. Thus the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/13 kt. The\nstorm remains positioned south of a subtropical ridge, which should\ncontinue to steer Norbert on a general west-northwestward to\nwestward track until it dissipates in a couple days. The track\nguidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is\njust slightly south of the previous one.\n \nA combination of mid-level dry air and strengthening westerly\nvertical wind shear should make it increasingly difficult for\nNorbert to maintain organized deep convection, resulting in a steady\nweakening trend over the next couple of days. The system is\nexpected to become post-tropical on Tuesday, and then open into a\ntrough by Wednesday. The new forecast shows an earlier transition \nto a post-tropical cyclone and subsequent dissipation.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/2100Z 19.7N 139.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 20.0N 141.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 20.2N 143.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  16/0600Z 20.4N 146.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}