{"id": "1210278649901744130", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-14T21:00:00Z", "msg": "956\nWTPZ45 KNHC 142035\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026\n200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026\n \nRecent visible satellite imagery shows that the center of the\ndepression has become exposed and well removed from the convection\nas northwesterly shear continues to push the convection away and\npush dry air into the center of the cyclone. The center is also\nfarther north than previously thought. The current objective\nintensity estimates from UW-CIMSS is in the range of 27-34 kt. As\nsuch, the initial intensity has been kept at 30 kt.\n \nBased on the more northward initial position, the depression is\nmoving west with an initial motion of 280/8 kt. The cyclone is being\nsteered by a ridge off to the northwest, and this ridge should\ncontinue to be the main steering flow for the cyclone through the\nforecast period. A general westward motion is expected to continue\nwith an increase in forward speed after 36-48 h. The current NHC\nforecast track has been adjusted to the north of the previous track\nand just a bit slower than before. The current forecast track is\ncloser to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google\nDeepMind (GDMI) forecast aids.\n \nThe environment is generally unfavorable for strengthening due to\nthe moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear advecting some dry\nair into the center of the depression. However, the intensity\nguidance shows the possibility of some strengthening during the next\n24 h. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for some slight\nstrengthening. While there is a period between 24-48 h where the\nshear should weaken, the guidance suggests that the cyclone will not\nbe able to take advantage of this period to strengthen further.\nAfter 48 h, the cyclone should weaken due to dry air entrainment\nand eventual absorption into the larger monsoon trough. The NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the prior advisory, and is\nslightly under the HCCA guidance for intensity.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/2100Z 16.9N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.7N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 16.4N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  17/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 16.9N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  18/1800Z 17.5N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}