{"msg": "022\nAXNT20 KNHC 141605\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe two tropical waves previously analyzed over the central \nAtlantic have merged into a single tropical wave, according \nsatellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics. The wave axis is \nalong 50W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted\nfrom 11.5N to 16N between 48W and 54.5W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues \nto 08N30W to 09N52W. The ITCZ extends from 09N52W to near 10N60W.\nScattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection\nis present from 05N to 14.5N and east of 45W. Isolated moderate\nconvection is present from 10N to 14N between 55W and the Lesser\nAntilles. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate convection is noted off Veracruz in the Bay of\nCampeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also affecting\nportions of the western and eastern Gulf. A 1018 mb high pressure \nsystem over the northern Gulf dominates the Gulf waters, \nsupporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the Bay of Campeche. \nElsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging over the NE Gulf will persist into\nTue supporting relatively tranquil conditions across much of the \nbasin. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal \ntrough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each \nevening through late this week, bringing nightly pulses of fresh \nNE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building \nsouthward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing \nNE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong\nand rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night. \nConditions will improve Fri. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nMiddle to upper-level low pressure is centered over the Hispaniola,\nand promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of\nthe Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a \nfew thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W. \nScattered strong convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean \nsouth of 15N. \nA tight pressure gradient continues to support fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central \nCaribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E \nwinds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and\nWindward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight \nto moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the NW basin.\nFor the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the \nBahamas and lower pressures in Colombia combine to sustain fresh \nto locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to \nrough seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to \nfresh trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will \npersist through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds\nand slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to \nfresh mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of \nCuba through midweek.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic,\nallowing for light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas\nacross much of the area, west of 55W. Moderate easterly winds are\nnoted off northern Hispaniola and western Cuba. A surface trough \nalong 49.5W in the central Atlantic is producing numerous showers\nand isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and between 44.5W and \n51W. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near these \nstorms. Another surface trough is supporting scattered showers \nand isolated thunderstorms north of 26N between 57W and 59.5W. \nElsewhere, an expansive ridge persists in the central and eastern \nAtlantic, supporting moderate or weaker seas and moderate seas \nacross the area.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates\nmuch of the basin, forcing fresh easterly winds off Hispaniola \nand in the Windward Passage. On Tue, strong high pressure building\nsouthward through the eastern United States will bring a cold \nfront into the NW waters, increasing NE winds to fresh to locally \nstrong and causing seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W \nof 70W through Thu. Conditions will improve Thu night into Fri. \nDuring the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low \npressure is forecast to move west-northwestward into the NE \nportion of the waters, bringing thunderstorms. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210225612720275458", "issued": "2026-09-14T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210225612720275458"}