{"msg": "962\nAXPZ20 KNHC 141601\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1550 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 19.4N 137.8W at 14/1500\nUTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45\nkt. Peak seas are up to 16 ft. Norbert is a sheared storm, with \nnumerous moderate to strong convection noted from 18N to 23N\nbetween 134W and 138W. Norbert is moving toward the west near 15\nkt and is expected to maintain this general motion during the \nnext couple of days. A gradual weakening trend is forecast \nduring the next couple of days, and Norbert could become a post- \ntropical cyclone tomorrow.\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.3N 119.7W at\n14/1500 UTC, moving west-southwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30\nkt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N \nbetween 115W and 121W, with scattered moderate convection \nelsewhere from 09N to 14N between 115W and 129W. The depression\nis moving toward the west-southwest near 9 kt and this motion is\nexpected to continue for the next several days with some gradual\nacceleration. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the \nnext 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm \nlater today. The system is expected to weaken beginning Tuesday \nnight or Wednesday.\nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNorbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public \nAdvisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 101W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 15\nkt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to\n17N between 98W and 108W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to 06N110W to\n07N129W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nactive from 03N to 14N E of 95W, from 02N to 07N between 108W and\n120W, from 02N to 10N between 121W and 134W, and from 06N to 12N\nW of 136W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.\nHeavy showers and tstms are across the SW Mexican offshores\nbetween Chiapas and Guerrero as well as the entrance of the Gulf\nof California. Moderte to fresh N to NE winds are in the\nTehuantepec region, while moderate easterlies are elsewhere from\nChiapas to Guerrero. However, strong to gusty winds are likely in\nthe areas of strong convection. Moderate SE winds are along the\nGulf of California while NW winds of the same speed are N of\nPunta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 7 to 8 ft N of Punta\nEugenia, and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters \nof Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N \nwinds through the early part of the week. Expect fresh winds \nacross the northern Gulf of California through the early part of \nthe week due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower\npressure over the Colorado River valley. Winds will freshen \nagain off Baja California by the end of the week, locally strong \nnear Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, expect strong to near-gale N \ngap winds and rough seas across the Tehuantepec by the middle of \nthe week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds with moderate seas across the Gulf of \nPapagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate to\nfresh winds from this gap wind extends to the outer offshore\nwaters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Convection \ncontinues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then\npulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally \nfresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early\nThu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with\nmoderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos\nIslands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern\nPanama.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly\nmoderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west \nof 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found \nsouth of 02N to the W of The Galapagos to 114W. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Norbert will weaken to a tropical depression \nnear 19.8N 139.8W this evening, move to 20.2N 142.4W Tue morning,\nbecome a remnant low and move to 20.4N 145.1W Tue evening, 20.6N\n147.8W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. \nMeanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near \n16.1N 121.0W this evening, move to 15.9N 123.2W Tue morning, \n15.6N 125.3W Tue evening, 15.4N 127.4W Wed morning, weaken to a \ntropical depression near 15.3N 129.6W Wed evening, and become a \nremnant low and move to 15.2N 132.1W Thu morning. Fifteen-E will \nchange little in intensity as it moves near 15.2N 137.0W early \nFri.  \nElsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next \nseveral days producing seas to 9 ft south of 05N. A tight \npressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough \nseas in the north of 22N and east of 125W through the early part \nof the week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210224725930409986", "issued": "2026-09-14T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210224725930409986"}