{"id": "1210207755824332802", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-14T15:00:00Z", "msg": "972\nWTPZ45 KNHC 141434\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026\n800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026\n \nThe center of the tropical depression remains on the western edge of\nthe convection due to ongoing westerly shear. The most recent TAFB\nDvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective intensity\nestimates are in the range of 27-34 kt. Therefore, the initial\nintensity is being held at 30 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe tropical depression continues to move west-southwest\nwith an initial motion of 240/8 kt. This seems to be due to a\ncombination of the nearby convection and the overall system being\nsteered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. This ridge\nshould continue to be the main steering flow for the cyclone and\nincrease overall forward speed later in the forecast period. The\ncurrent NHC forecast track has been adjusted slightly right of the\nprevious track and just a bit slower than before. The current\nforecast track is closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach\n(HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) forecast aids.\n \nThe environment is not expected to be very conducive for too much\nstrengthening due to the moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear\nadvecting some dry air into the center of the depression. Despite\nthis, the intensity guidance shows the possibility of some \nstrengthening during the next 24 h. Based on this, the NHC \nintensity forecast calls for some slight strengthening. While there \nis a period between 24-48 h where the shear should weaken, the \nguidance suggests that the cyclone will not be able to take \nadvantage of this period to strengthen. After 48 h, the cyclone \nshould weaken as it gets lost within the larger monsoon trough. The \nNHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior advisory, but keeps \n35 kt intensity for a little while longer.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/1500Z 16.3N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 16.1N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 15.9N 123.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 15.4N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  17/0000Z 15.3N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 15.2N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  18/1200Z 15.2N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}