{"id": "1210138254042300418", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-14T09:00:00Z", "msg": "183\nWTPZ44 KNHC 140841\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\n1100 PM HST Sun Sep 13 2026\n\nA renewed burst of deep convection, with cloud-top temperatures as \ncold as -80 C, has developed over and east of Norbert's circulation \ncenter due to increasing westerly vertical wind shear. Despite the \nrecent increase in convection, an ASCAT-C scatterometer pass showed \nan asymmetric wind field with peak winds of 34 kt north of the \ncenter. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 \nkt.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/11 kt. The \nstorm remains positioned south of a subtropical ridge, which should \nsteer Norbert on a general west-northwestward to westward track for \nthe remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in \nfairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely \nunchanged, reflecting a blend of the previous forecast with the \nlatest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind \nensemble mean (GDMI).\n\nA combination of mid-level dry air and strengthening westerly \nvertical wind shear should make it increasingly difficult for \nNorbert to maintain organized deep convection, resulting in a steady \nweakening trend over the next couple of days. The current NHC \nintensity forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory and \nshows Norbert degenerating into a remnant low by Tuesday and \ndissipating as it opens into a trough by Wednesday.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0900Z 19.3N 136.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 19.7N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 20.2N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 20.5N 143.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  16/0600Z 20.7N 146.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}