{"msg": "299\nAXNT20 KNHC 140430\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0330 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 18N, \nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is found from 07N to 16N between 43W and 49.5W.\nAnother central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of \n17N, moving westward at near 15 kt. A few showers are found ahead\nof this wave between 10N and 13N.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-\nBissau near 11N15W and continues to 10.5N19W to 08N31W to 11N44W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 9.5N51W to near 12N67W. Scattered to locally\nnumerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N\nto 12N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 05N to 10N between 22W and 34W, and from\n05N to 11.5N between 35W and 45W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA middle to upper-level low is centered over the western gulf and\ncontinue to promote unstable conditions and areas of active\nconvection across the basin. However, as has been the case in\nrecent nights, late afternoon-early evening convection has\ndiminished significantly in recent hours. Scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms are occurring in a band over the central \nGulf from 24.tN to 27N between 95W and the W coast of Florida.\nScattered strong evening convection occurring over southern Mexico\nhas drifted across the near shore coastal waters in the Veracruz\narea, and across much of the southern Bay of Campeche. At the\nsurface, a 1017 mb high is analyzed near 28.5N86W, while a weak\nsurface trough extends from central Florida southwestward into \nthe coastal waters offshore of Marco Island. A weak pressure \npattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic \nflow over most of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas, and fresh NE flow \nalong the NW and W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are \n3 to 5 ft.\nFor the forecast, weak ridging centered over the NE Gulf will \npersist into Tue, supporting relatively tranquil conditions \nacross much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay of \nCampeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the \nYucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week, bringing \nnightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high\npressure building southward from the eastern United States will \nlead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds \nreaching fresh to strong and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed\nthrough Thu night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nMiddle to upper-level low pressure is centered over Haiti, and\npromoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of the\nCaribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W,\nacross the Lesser Antilles to 58W. Scattered strong convection is\noccurring across the SW Caribbean south of 13.5N from western\nPanama to central Nicaragua. Weak high pressure across the NE Gulf\nof America and the western Atlantic is combining with a 1006 mb\nColombian Low to sustain strong to near gale-force NE to E winds \nover much of the central Caribbean S of 16N. Rough seas of 7 to 11\nft are occurring in these waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds \nand seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward Passage and Gulf of \nHonduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate \nseas are evident elsewhere south of 18N, including the eastern \nCaribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas \nprevail across the remainder of the NW basin.\nFor the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge centered\nNE of the Bahamas and extending into the NE Gulf of America will\ncombine with lower pressure in Colombia to sustain fresh to strong\nwith locally near gale-force easterly trade winds, and moderate to\nrough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the \nworkweek. Strong winds are expected tonight in the Gulf of \nHonduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes are \nexpected over the next several days in the eastern Caribbean. \nElsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas \nare expected.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nOf note, Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the ongoing \neasterly gap wind event through the Straits of Gibraltar. This \nwarning will remain in effect through 14/06Z.\nA low level trough persists across the central Atlantic, with\nsurface trough analyzed from 22N46W to 29N47W. A small and tight\ndeep layered upper low is centered just W of this trough near \n27.5N50W, and is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection from 24N to 30N between 43W and 49W. Widely scattered\nmoderate convection is also occurring near a pair of low level low\ncenters along 30N between 55W and 68W. Otherwise, weak ridging\ncontinues from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas, yielding light to\ngentle anticyclonic winds N of 24N and W of 65W, where seas are 3\nft or less, while moderate to fresh easterly trades are occurring\nthrough the SE Bahamas and near the N coast of Hispaniola, where\nseas are 3 to 5 ft. A relatively weak pressure gradient dominates\nthe tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker winds across the \nwaters between 30W and 65W, except moderate to fresh near the two \ntropical waves, and the surface trough along 46W-47W. Across the \nNE Atlantic waters moderate NE winds prevail from the Canary\nIslands to 30W and N of 20N, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates\nmuch of the basin W of 50W, and will force fresh to locally \nstrong easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage \ntonight and Mon night, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. On\nTue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern \nUnited States will bring a cold front into the NW waters,\nproducing fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas building\n6 to 9ft N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During \nthe middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure \nis forecast to move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the\nwaters, bringing active thunderstorms. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210088887427006466", "issued": "2026-09-14T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210088887427006466"}