{"msg": "576\nAXPZ20 KNHC 140358\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Norbert is centered near 19.2N 135.3W at 14/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to \n50 kt. Peak seas are up to 17 ft, or 5 m. The center is partially\nexposed, with numerous moderate to scattered strong convection \nis noted within 90 nm in the NE quadrant of Norbert, with scattered\nmoderate convection within 120 nm SE quadrant. Norbert is expected\nto move west-northwestward to westward during the next few days.\nWhile some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the next\n12 h or so, Norbert is forecast to begin a weakening trend that \nshould persist through the forecast period.\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 17.0N 118.3W at \n14/0300 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with \ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 8 to 11 ft. Numerous moderate to \nscattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the SE \nquadrant, with scattered moderate convection extending out to 240\nnm elsewhere in the southeast semicircle. The depression on a \nmainly westward track with a slightly increase in forward speed \nfor the next during the couple of days. Only slight short-term \nstrengthening is called for and the system is expected to begin \nweakening in a day or so, with the cyclone degenerating into a \nremnant low in 96 hours or sooner. \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nNorbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public \nAdvisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 100W from 05N to 13N, moving west at \n15-20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the \nITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N100W to 08N115W.\nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from\n05N to 11N between 85W and 105W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.\nDivergent flow aloft north of an upper low is supporting a line \nof showers and thunderstorms from 15N105W to across the Mexican \ncoast of Nayarit. Fresh N gap winds are across the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft \nseas prevail across Mexican offshore waters, with 1-3 ft seas in \nthe Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters \nof Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N \nwinds through the early part of the week. Expect fresh winds \nacross the northern Gulf of California through the early part of \nthe week due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower\npressure over the Colorado River valley, locally strong Mon \nnight. Winds will freshen again off Baja California by the end of\nthe week, locally strong near Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, \nexpect strong to near- gale N gap winds and rough seas across the\nTehuantepec by the middle of the week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and locally rough seas across the Gulf of \nPapagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except\nslight seas offshore Colombia and western Panama. Convection \ncontinues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty \nwinds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to \nsupport pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to \nrough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then\npulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally \nfresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early\nThu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with\nmoderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos\nIslands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern\nPanama.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information \nabout Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E.\nAway from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly\nmoderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west \nof 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found \nsouth of 05N between 95W and 130W. Winds are moderate or weaker \nelsewhere with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Norbert will move to 19.5N 137.2W Mon morning, 20.0N 139.8W\nMon evening, then move west of the area to 20.4N 142.5W Tue morning.\nNorbert will weaken to a remnant low near 20.6N 145.2W Tue evening,\nand dissipate Wed morning. Meanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen \nto a tropical storm near 16.8N 119.6W Mon morning, move to 16.5N \n121.4W Mon evening, 16.3N 123.4W Tue morning, weaken to a \ntropical depression near 16.0N 125.8W Tue evening, 15.7N 128.3W \nWed morning, and 15.4N 130.8W Wed evening. Fifteen-E will become \na remnant low as it moves to 15.5N 135.5W late Thu. Elsewhere, a \ncross equatorial swell will persist over the next several days \nproducing seas to 9 ft south of 05N. A tight pressure gradient \nwill result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the north \nof 22N and east of 125W through the early part of the week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1210082716550758402", "issued": "2026-09-14T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1210082716550758402"}