{"id": "1210068742660521986", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-14T03:00:00Z", "msg": "961\nWTPZ44 KNHC 140247\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026\n500 PM HST Sun Sep 13 2026\n \nRecent satellite imagery indicates that moderate vertical wind shear \ncontinues to displace any deep convection east of Norbert's center. \nEarlier ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer passes depicted an \nasymmetric wind field, with peak winds near 40 kt north of the \ncenter. Given these data and Norbert's limited convection, the \ninitial intensity is held at 40 kt. \n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be 290/12 kt. The storm is \nexpected to move west-northwestward to westward as it remains south \nof a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance \ncontinues to show good agreement on the general heading for this \nstorm through the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is \nlargely unchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to \nthe corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind \nensemble mean.\n \nWhile some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the next 12 \nh or so, Norbert is forecast to begin a weakening trend that should \npersist through the forecast period. The cyclone continues to \ncontend with moderate westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind \nshear and SHIPS guidance is projecting the shear to gradually \nincrease after 12-24 h. Simulated GFS and ECMWF satellite imagery \nshow Norbert struggling to generate any deep convection by 48 h. \nTherefore, Norbert is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical \nremnant low around Tuesday, then dissipate by Wednesday. The current \nNHC intensity forecast remains in line with the corrected \nmulti-model consensus (HCCA) guidance, which follows the previous \nadvisory.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0300Z 19.2N 135.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 19.5N 137.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 20.0N 139.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 20.4N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 20.6N 145.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}