{"id": "1210066271840206850", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-14T03:00:00Z", "msg": "641\nWTPZ45 KNHC 140235\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026\n800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026\n\nThe depression has not become better organized since earlier today. \nVisible satellite images show that the well-defined low-level \ncenter remains displaced and exposed to the northwest of the main \narea of deep convection.  Using measurements with the Dvorak shear \npattern, the intensity of the cyclone is estimated to be below \ntropical storm strength.  Thus the current intensity estimate \nremains 30 kt, which is in agreement with earlier scatterometer \nobservations.\n\nWater vapor imagery shows that the system is currently being \naffected by moderate vertical wind shear and relatively dry \nmid-tropospheric air.  Global model guidance indicates that these \nmarginal to unfavorable conditions are likely to persist for the \nnext few days. Therefore, only slight short-term strengthening is \ncalled for and the system is expected to begin weakening in a day \nor so, with the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low in 96 hours \nor sooner.  This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery \ndepicted by the ECMWF model run.  \n\nThe depression is moving a little south of due west with an \ninitial motion of around 260/9 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north \nof the system should keep the cyclone on a mainly westward track \nwith a slightly increase in forward speed for the next 72-96 hours. \nThe official track forecast is similar to, but not quite as fast \nas, the latest Google DeepMind and corrected model consensus, \nHCCA, guidance.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0300Z 17.0N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 16.8N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 16.3N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  16/1200Z 15.7N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 15.4N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}